NorthHillsWx

Fixed it for you

I mean normally if this forum saw that map less than 48 hours from start time this place would be hopping with positivity

If it was me and it looks like we get 2-4” in Raleigh I’d stay put. Not sure I’d miss that given how rare snow has become here to chase 6-8” somewhere else. If those totals beef up to double digits NE of here, maybe I’d chase regardless what Raleigh got

Reminds me of Jan 2022. Completely lost the storm to the east then 24 hours out models caught on to interaction with trailing ULL and resulted in snow across the state with coastal enhancement further east

I agree for central/eastern NC but if it’s just the coastal and no WAA I really don’t think areas west of there have much chance of anything beyond nuisance snows or mood flakes. This could still be a big event and to your point it could just be honing in on the sweet spot but to me the boom scenarios have come way down and the bust, even in central NC, is literally no QPF. Maybe I’m wrong

I mean this is the 3rd storm this year that’s done the exact same thing. What a way to waste a -5 AO and +PNA for the east coast. Still holding out hope for central/eastern NC but foothills, upstate and western VA are beyond life support

DTs snow map is actually comical. He’s got areas in 6-12” range that legitimately won’t see accumulation

Honestly at this rate that might be our fate. Western cutoff is going to be brutal. It’s not like the southern/weaker trends are done. If anything, they’re picking up steam. NYC was here two days ago, the MA fell yesterday. Richmond went down this morning. We’re holding the line but that’s not where you want to be given everything I’ve seen. EURO has cut 1” of QPF here since yesterday morning. If current modeling was accurate I’d go 2-4” for Raleigh with a jack of 6-8” near Elizabeth city. But given the trends, that 2-4” could fall to TR by the end of the day and I almost expect it to

RDU needs 3.8” to hit climo, btw

I’m still optimistic for RDU to have a moderate snowfall and like you, I’ll sacrifice QPF if it’s snow and not ZR. But we’re solidly on the western edge now. Normally I’d say this is a good spot to be, but with our low trending weaker and not just south, we are now at real risk of missing everything. 06z GFS actually showed some positives and some of the hi res models show the coastal taking over and snow building over top of us but pretty much everyone has lost the WAA snow and that transfer to the coastal is going to leave a lot of folks dry. We are not out of it by any means and as is with this id go with 2-4” based on current modeling but the boom potential is rapidly waning and it’s looking much more likely the floor is mood flakes

It’s got Twitter Mets thoroughly flummoxed. Everyone bit on this one with EPS absence rock solid for nearly a week. You get to day 4 and with the EPS locked in the way it was, you expect at least there will be a big storm somewhere

I think as some have said on here that models just do not do well when the NS is as dominant as it has been this year. Every single storm has trended weaker up until go time. Even the late Jan system that produced the light snow, the NW trend wasn’t from a strengthening trend, models just caught onto the mid level moisture during the last 24 hours. Now this one is an exceptional fail because every model suite missed it. Not just EPS. It’s rare to get the day 4-5 agreement we had with this storm. I mean it was run after run consistency. I try not to get pulled into long range modeling but certainly when every ensemble group is painting the same picture inside day 6 you have to take note. This will be one that we need to remember in the future about how to fail in the mid range.

Great post by Eric Webb: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1891432322140172406?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I’ve gotta say, when this first appeared, I thought the biggest risk for the forum was an 850 torch and watching western VA through the MA get buried. If you’d shown me this mornings runs two days ago and told me it was the same storm I legit may have laughed at you. We may fail, but we will not fail as bad as those north of us. Hell Richmond might win fail of the year, going from consistent 15”+ modeling for days to a non event.

I still think RDU is in a great spot. Now we don’t need it bleeding further east or this is a coast only snowfall. What a drastic change over last 2 days. It fooled WPC which had triad-DC in 70% for heavy snow

True but almost identical to its last run. Maybe a hair drier but similar

ICON would feed families. Coastal bomb with banding from the gods. Also no issues with thermals and it slows down plus throws in some light snow with the ULL passage like the CMC. It also juiced up further west (sorry foothill area, still blanked). Great run and a HECS

ICON a big hit triangle-east. All snow

Spoke too soon

ICON looks like a strung out mess

Major sleet bomb for the northern 1/2 of NC

Just a few hundred miles south of its last run, no big deal

Raleigh to Va Beach looks like as good a shot as that area’s had in 6 years for a major snow

The MA forum actually now has 2 storm threads because the first one didn’t work out for them

If it’s after 9 they should be fine once they get out of the neighborhood