NorthHillsWx

The amount of 45 kt gusts from cape lookout to the mid Atlantic has been impressive with the system. Very large area of strong northerly winds. Can imagine a substantial push of water on some of the sounds and rivers that catch that fetch

Great analysis. I said this on the Southeast board, but folks rushing to name this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in awhile! It’s a textbook nor Easter and if you look at Water Vapor loop you can see it’s part of a larger ULL centered over the western Carolina’s. Also agree, if this was south of hatteras and over warmer water for longer, you could see it “pinch off” and wrap up into a hybrid system but this is fully frontal at the moment and a very powerful nor Easter. Jennettes pier has now gusted to 65 mph and has recorded gusts over 45 kts for the third straight day. Very impressive system but not tropical

https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1967948009901109559?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I do not think this is subtropical. It is fully attached to a front and I see no evidence of a warm core, just warm air on eastern side south of a warm front. Also if you watch water vapor loop it is within a broader upper level system centered over WNC. These nor Easter’s can be quite strong and prolonged, as evidenced by winds gusting above 50 on the OBX for the third straight day. The folks jumping on naming this haven’t seen a proper nor Easter in a while! These are fun systems to watch

Jennettes pier is gusting to 65, sustained at 42!!! (MPH)

I cannot believe how dry it’s gotten after back to back 9”+ rainfall months at my house. We’re on track to finish with under 1/2” of rain for the entire month and I frankly don’t see another rain chance unless something tropical happens

Well so much for any rain in central NC

Jennette’s Pier in Nags Head is now gusting up to 60! Quite the coastal low EDIT: duck pier gusted to 58

They read this forum and listened to everyone complaining about them naming every cloud lol. Looking at this system it appears fully non-tropical. Corbina and Nags head are now gusting over 50mph at the moment, very impressive for a non tropical low. Would not shock me to see some gusts into the 60’s if the system keeps tightening up. Name or no name, the OBX are experiencing mid tier TS impacts

Hatteras buoy is now reporting sustained 35 kt wind with gusts approaching 50 kts. Likely to be an unpleasant day on the obx

Having an AN season seems unattainable at this point in terms of ACE and even NS. NN might be a stretch. It would take another ACE monster like Erin to even approach normal levels. With only 1 hurricane thus far it seems unlikely we will reach our average hurricane count as well. The current cherry certainly could develop and pad those numbers a bit but even that systems development keeps getting delayed somewhat on modeling. Really at a loss of words for this September. I thought 91L was going to kick off a more active period. I can’t even imagine our opinion of the year if Erin did not become the ACE machine it was.

The eastern half of NC could get some heavy, beneficial rainfall over the next couple days depending on how strong the coastal low gets.

Probably not tropical but the low off the Carolina coast could become quite strong when it moves ashore. Some guidance shows winds approaching 50 kts

Never count out October in the gulf but east coast is fighting climo into October for significant landfalls. Obviously there are exceptions

Dipped down to 53.5 this morning. Took the kids for a walk and it felt amazing. Great day for watching football with a bunch of big games this afternoon

Where in the world are you getting “lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic” from the 2024 season? It was above average on every metric and featured some of the worst hurricane impacts we have ever seen. There were 5 MDR hurricanes and the Gulf was active as well. Sorry, I will not agree with you on this.

.14” overnight here. We did make it to 70 yesterday

We may not hit 70 today. Cloudy, drizzly 66 at the moment

Low of 56 this morning

Cracked 90 for first time since July yesterday. Topped out at 92.6. Finally got some rain, .02” in the gauge this morning

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks

Man the western Atlantic looks downright hostile the next 3 weeks besides home brew

Might be DOA

Definitely an increase in models that either don’t develop this at all or keep it weak. Likely a main reason near term track guidance keeps shifting south. Environment around the islands looks fairly hostile for whatever makes it there

The idea this becomes a carribean storm is increasing. One other thing to note is several models show quite a bit of wind shear when the system approaches the islands. Perhaps they are seeing a shallower system that rides further south. Definitely an interesting track evolution from whatever forms here. Might have some hurdles ahead of it but I’d say the threat to land has increased markedly