NorthHillsWx

EPS and GEFS both show notable upticks in activity beyond the 10th. As were in the peak of hurricane season that is not surprising. The good news is that at least through mid month, the eastern trough hangs on which continues to be a deterrent to any storm approaching from the east. I think the CAG seen on some GFS runs is overblown as it tends to do but with La Niña developing and a tendency for shear to decrease this time of year I’d expect to start looking to the carribean and southern gulf. SSTs continue to decrease off the east coast from NC northward and I fished Friday out of Morehead and can confirm how much it has cooled. Water was 76-77 until about 35 miles out and warmed to 82 in the stream. Contrast to when I fished last week of July in same location and the temp never fell below 83 from the inlet to the stream and the stream was 87. That’s a huge difference in energy available of anything threatens NC-northward from a month ago. To me, this feels like the lid is starting to come off a bit in the Atlantic and mid month looks to be quite active

Low of 55 this morning. Warmup starts today through Saturday, does not look like we make it even through the first week of September with no 90s (I’m still taken aback that we made it through August without a 90 degree reading) but the good news is yet another fall like airmass moves in to start next week. What a freaking pattern!

58.5 to start the day

High of only 77.2! Low of 53.0 this morning what a day

Monthly stats: Highest temp: 89.1 Lowest Temp: 57.5 Rainfall: 9.18”

Several areas in central NC waking up to 40s this morning to start off the month! We undershot guidance significantly as we are down to 53.2 imby

I think we’re going to undershoot guidance significantly. Currently 59 forecast is 58

It wouldn’t surprise me to see a short notice storm form in gulf with these fronts making it to the northern gulf and rotting

We did crack 80 but I’m not complaining. 80.2 and absolutely wonderful out

I’m not sure we crack 80 today. Got up to 79.4 but have fallen about a degree since. Been pretty lockstep with RDU but I think they hit 80.1 last hour

Gotta say that seeing the 540 line dig into the lakes states already on models for next week has me excited for fall

The only thing we can complain about if this pattern continues is it could get quite dry this fall again. Storm track well east of us and dry Canadian fronts with no gulf connection. But after getting nearly 20” over last two months I think most in here are fine with a break

High of 78.6 yesterday. Currently 59 Bottomed out at 58.5

Not to beat a dead horse but holy moly it’s quiet in the tropics

Oh I am not saying a devastating storm won’t happen, it’s way too early to make that assumption, I am just stating the SW Atlantic and really now almost the entire western Atlantic has gone from the highest departures above normal to solidly below normal. From a sensible weather perspective with repeated fronts, there doesn’t appear to be anything that would brings those temps back up to where they were a few weeks ago. The gulf is still a bathtub but it is only running slightly AN now and most of the Caribbean is near normal now. If we keep the troughiness going in the east and with decreasing sun angle, it seems unlikely ocean temps in western Atlantic will recover to where they were earlier this season. Plenty warm for hurricanes, yes, but there may be a bit more of a limiting factor now than we had. Erin’s upwelling certainly played a huge role but these fronts and nor Easter’s are not typical of this time of year either. Something to watch during this tropical dead period

This is looking like it continues well into September. We’ll see where we end up

I know SSTs are still plenty warm obviously as we approach peak season, but sea temps have fallen across all of the western Atlantic and Caribbean and most of the gulf. A lot is due to Erin in the Atlantic but a lot is due to the train of fronts making very far south for this time of year. In NC many areas woke up to 50s this morning and 60’s made it down to the gulf coast. With more fronts on the way it begs the question of whether SSTs have already peaked in the western Atlantic and whether if a storm approaches that this will help mitigate high end intensity. It is quite literally a 180 from the start of season

This is incredible. I hope everyone is enjoying this stretch of weather this is a historically cool period in the middle of summer. We may never get an extended BN stretch like this again for this long as so very few have ever happened. RDU hit 90 1 time in August and many areas in our sub forum never touched it and it is continuing into September. This realistically is likely the coolest extended summer period in many of our lifetimes. Not only the peak departures from normal but the duration of BN is what is making this period stand out

First 50’s of the season! Well it’s not even close to fall and we have 50’s anyway! 58.6 this morning and honestly could’ve used a light jacket taking the kids to school

64 for the low this morning! Currently 69 and feels incredible out

It got back up to around 89 after I posted this but 89.1 was the max! We did not break 90 and we look locked in to stay below it the entire month, WOW! Currently 86 with relatively low humidity again, dewpoint 62

IDK if the ‘danger’ has passed but we made it up to 89.1 (highest this month) and have since fallen to around 86

The no 90s in August streak is in jeopardy! Already to 87.4 which is above the forecast high and surging up. 88.7 is the highest I’ve recorded this month so today very likely surpasses that at this rate

GFS and Euro kind of hinting at some home brew next week

85.8 yesterday. Today is probably the only shot to hit 90 here this month and forecasts are for us to top out about 3 degrees shy. When the hot airmass is shy of 90 in August you are in a fantastic pattern. Didn’t realize it had rained a little this weekend but got 0.04” which brings the month to 9.18”