mattie g

That's fair, but I'm always curious about the MJO since it seems that it really helps to drive a lot of what happens downstream. I've always been honest about my relative lack of weather knowledge compared to many folks on here, so no one should ever take my non-obs, weather-related posts too terribly seriously.

Same happened here about an hour ago. Now it's about to drizzle.

I have no idea what would be required for that 500mb look to come to fruition, but goddamn is that tasty. In the end, only one of those winters was decent, but whatever. I just figure that no two seasons will work out exactly the same, though I'm sure some of our resident savants will remember how lucky or unlucky we were in those three years.

I don't know why anyone would get worked up over a 10+day general outlook and if it flips.

I can already hear the drip, drip in that video....

Looks fairly warm and dry through Thursday, no?

I feel like I've underseeded in the past - just reluctant to lay down much seed, especially in obviously thinner locations. For some reason, I just have a poor record with growing new sections of grass or filling in thin patches despite my general success with gardening. My garden is still humming along...if getting a little ragged. I topped my tomatoes last weekend and still have lots of tomatoes on the vines. Jalapenos are still doing fine, as well! That lack of a recent freeze has prolonged my season for at least a couple more weeks. As soon as the tomatoes come down, I'll get my garlic in.

Damn! We got some drizzle here and there, with maybe a 30-second burst of light rain. Radar looked like it was going to be a little more, but it hit a wall and basically stopped right at my doorstep. Basically a much better day to be farther east if you wanted precip.

How'd it go? We had quite a few kids from our summer team that swam in that meet, and by all accounts lots of them did well. My 9-year-old decided that she didn't want to do year-round swim this year (she doesn't like the meets AT ALL), so she's only swimming with our summer team at Audrey Moore on Sunday evenings. The amazing thing is that, even only swimming for an hour a week I can see real improvement. If only she'd have stuck with year-round again this year I think she might have made even more strides...but it's her choice!

Looking forward to multiple runs this year that maul South Carolina with 30" under 240 hours, only for the ultimate solution to be some wet snow in Garrett County.

The earliest trees in my area are basically bare at this point, with some just barely having turned and others in full color. My neighborhood (especially a few of my immediate neighbors) has lots of huge beech trees that seem to take forever to fully drop, but they're kind of nice to have around to admire the colors - they're a nice mix of green, yellow, and orange right now. But those things shed leaves and nuts and husks all year round. So frustrating...

You’re young. We don’t feel bad for you.

^^ I think I'll pass on getting my hopes up for a snowstorm during the beginning of November.

Average the two and you get the sensible weather most of this sub.

I'm not particularly interested in tracking snow in November, but I am interested in tracking continuous disruptions of the SPV.

You have to account for inflation in all of these calculations, though.

Plenty of frost, especially in the areas just down the street near the creek (which are in a relative "valley" in the neighborhood). Still...only got to 35 in my neck of Burke.

Awwww...you should have waited for snowman19 to post this.

Yeah...ton of work to do it manually. It would be a neat project though! Exactly. You'd have to come up with a formula to weight the model output, then ideally connect to model output via API that would write to a table, then source from that table via some sort of code to get your own output. I think it would be a super cool thing to do, but like I said, I don't have nearly the technical chops to do it! Honestly, just coming up with the logic would be a big task!

Not sure if I got below 37 in my area of Burke. It was a little breezy this morning, so I'm sure that played a part.

We need a formula that calculates the model-predicted snowfall as averaged for the season. You'd probably need an API and someone with coding experience to get it down pat, but it would be awesome to come up with something to show that X model "actually predicted" 32" of snow for Dulles this past season or whatever. I have an idea as to how it would work, but don't have the skills to make it happen...which is why I'm just a PM for a highly technical team and not an actual developer.

Hyperbolic and disingenuous just to drive views, likes, and re-twats.

I was coming in here to say much the same - colors started much earlier around here than in any recent years, and lots of trees are really bright. I like to measure the timing of the colors each year against what they're like at Halloween. Seems like the last five years (at least) have had lots of green leaves on the trees while the kids are trick-or-treating. We've got two more weeks to go, but the trees are already as far along now as they've been at Halloween in any recent years.

I like your confidence in what would be a decent winter around these parts. Not a great one, but certainly more interesting (particularly with the cold) than anything we've had (at least IMBY) recently.

Bust?