Kmlwx

Was just coming here to post this! Big changes from even just a few days ago

Yes sir

I will say this - I agree it is probably dead for the metro area(s). Sure, coastal/eastern sections are still in the game. But one huge caveat here...I know with remote sensing the whole "data sparse regions" argument is less valid - however, when we are dealing with some pretty small scale changes that can make big changes, I would probably at least mentally keep one eye on this until the s/w hits the west coast and the energy up in Canada (which is a mess of stuff flying around) is sampled/resolved better. I don't think it's going to make any huge shifts...but there might be a point where it gives us a little glimmer of hope here in the DC/Baltimore areas. Again...I think this is probably not the one for us here in the corridor...but just saying - there is still some data to be sampled by the upper air network that *might* contribute to changes. But as I said above - the ensembles all still look pretty solid into February. If the blocking really does recycle - we will probably get another chance or two to make bank. There are absolutely NO guarantees in this. I'm sure @Maestrobjwa will confirm this at this point. Nobody is "owed" snow. If it happens, it happens...if it doesn't, well it doesn't.

We are probably going to have to wait for the blocking to reload/recycle for our next big dog threat (if there is one). In the interim - we probably need to keep our eyes out for a snow pack refresher that shows up at short leads - like a northern stream system that drops an inch or two. Good news is the ensembles still look pretty solid going into February in terms of the blocking reload.

I think we got it

Got up to a balmy 28.6 before falling back to 27.3 now. Sun is doing some good work on spots that I shoveled. Still a heck of a lot of shoveling to go....

If I'm nitpicking...that WeatherNext model is a bit too offshore. I know it shows digital blue over us - but it is a good ways out to seat on that plot. We'll see how this week of model tracking pans out!

Yeah this airmass is anomalous to say the least!

All I'm hearing is next weekend is the appetizer if we can will it back into place like the 18z Euro showed

I know we all love to say it - but can you imagine if this QPF firehose was entirely snow. Man...it would be snowing cats and dogs...

I only have some limited video with a very bad quality camcorder I took during the Feb 2007 storm. But this is wild the amount of sleet pouring out of the sky. At my high of the day at 22.5 and it's been creeping up. I am NOT expecting to touch/exceed 32 but still worth monitoring. Let's hope this stays IP and doesn't go to ZR... Crazy stuff out there - even if it wasn't a "clean" snowstorm for us - the science nerd in me is fascinated by this type of storm. It's rare! Usually sleet is just a stop in the transition to rain for us. Seldom do we just dump sleet for hours on end like this. Arctic airmass doing arctic airmass things!

The amount of sleet between shoveling sessions is pretty incredible. Good workout if nothing else....

At my high of the day in Colesville (19.9 degrees) - still major sleet falling.

Radar looking a bit more splotchy recently. Definitely a sleet bomb out there for sure.

Plenty of time for it to be in Chicago by later in the week!

Precip hitting the side of the house sounds like pop rocks/rice krispies. We haven't had a sleet bomb in a while so I'm down for this. Hopefully we can avoid it going to ZR. Although...this week is going to be hell at work so I would be totally fine with a full week closure (which is really just WFH).

I eyeballed 5-6 inches around when it flipped. Surprised you only got that much! Maybe compacting? I was up around 5:45 when it looked like 4-5.

Pinging away here in Colesville, MD

Just radar in general. It may very well be sleeting at those locations that show it - but it's just a word of caution that the radar beam is not moving horizontal to the ground across its entire journey. It doesn't *always* reflect ground truth. It's only one of many reasons why radar meteorology is challenging!

Seems people forget that the radar beam rises in elevation as it gets farther away from the radome. Hence the donut appearance in winter weather events - and also subsequently why low level rotation for tornadoes can get missed in radar sparse zones away from the radar. The beam height near Winchester is over 2500ft. Once you get out to Delray, WV it's almost 5000ft!

He's an emergency manager so I trust him. He may have the info before it hits most outlets.

Also not to rag a on a local met - but Doug K is not known for being the spitting image of 100% reliable

Sleet is included in snow totals in obs/climate reports. That product is freezing rain accretion.

February 2006 and and 2007 were pretty memorable for specific reasons.

Adding as well that we have to remember DC/Baltimore aren't traditionally "snow towns" - sure we go on runs but the trick is to set expectations in check. Enjoy the snow falling as much as you can - and you'll find that going from a 12 inch storm to a 6 inch storm doesn't hurt nearly as much. Life is just too short to hand wring when we just aren't a snow region.