Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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We need to hope for a good cold pool I guess to sustain/strengthen this line.
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Special soundings.
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Is that your call? All aboard the severe bus!
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I'm kind of giddy about the radar at this point. It looks very very promising to the NW of the region.
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There' some showery junk forming down near Harrisonburg and Staunton in VA. Hopefully that's not the start of popcorn stuff ruining the instability.
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Could be me being a wx weenie but I think the current radar matches the HRRR better than the NAM snoozer.
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Warmth is building even up into Johnstown, PA and Pitt area. It's just this little wedge we are still dealing with. Needs to breakup relatively soon to juice us up.
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Also interesting to note that MCD highlights areas that are very stable so far (locally in the DC/Baltimore metros.)
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Front Royal is reporting 79 so the temps are rising closer in now.
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That would seem to indicate pulse storms mostly/multicell unless you get a nice cold pool to propagate a line.
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Like I said before - all my eggs are in today since I won't be around tomorrow So I'm hoping for a regionwide event. I'll be looking at GOES a lot today.
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Yeah - wedge is holding very well. 60s temps all the way well into VA. We need warmth stat. HRRR runs warm us into the mid to upper 70s.
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yeah the HRRR would be area-wide raking this evening. Wonder if it has to do with capping on the NAM not being broken. Pretty stark difference. HRRR has been quite consistent...so one of them will bust pretty large.
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Of note - the HRRRx is pretty much a snoozer except for a few cells.
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Yeah it's night and day with the HRRR. And the differences on sim radar show up by like 4-6 hours out. Wow.
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I hope today performs well IMBY. Flying out at 7am tomorrow so whatever happens tomorrow I will miss out on. Also hoping the engine doesn't fall off my plane.
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Almost looks D-word-ish. But then again...it's the HRRR
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Garden variety thunderstorms here. Nice though!
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Cell in HoCo (along the MoCo line) must be trying - I have a small hail indicator on it.
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Severe possible along and NE of a line from Westminster to Towson. Garden variety to the south of that line seems like a good call right now at least. Seeimg some little popcorn showers locally around DC now.
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I'm turning into you. Meh.
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Some tiny cells going up in Southern Carroll and extreme northern HoCo. From looking at them on GR2Analyst - they look capped....struggling to get very high
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That said - mesoanalysis is bonkers in a tiny area just ENE of DC. Has very high supercell parameter values there as well as high EHI.
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Radar trends still significantly favor that tornado watch zone. Looks like the best line will (as expected) go into NE Maryland. Let's see if outflow can trigger anything closer to the DC region.
