Kmlwx

Not really. psu just referenced a "heavy thump of snow" - you can still get a "solid snowfall" and then ice. They seem to agree to me.

Is there a plan to upgrade or otherwise make them a bit more usable? I guess they can be okay in severe wx setups.

I agree with it being better than last week. But yeah - we aren't getting another '07 without STRONG CAD.

Valentine's 2007 was essentially a glacier for many many days after the storm. This coming event is much closer to the last week on the spectrum than anything close to Valentine's 2007...

No. This will be significantly less impressive than that. Probably much closer to our typical few inches of snow to slop type deals.

I've driven from Columbia to Silver Spring this morning (around 4am) and just went from Silver Spring to Potomac and there is not a hazard to be found on the road other than wet pavement and stupidity.

Believe that would be positive vorticity advection (maybe?)

This looks closer to a severe t'storm threat than a winter storm for us

Probably enough to knock out 3K customers power.

Line forming. Maybe you spoke too soon.

At this point I'd think he's doing it just to get reactions. Either ban him or get everyone to ignore him or he's going to keep it up.

And Mdecoy apparently thinks the pattern change is still 2 weeks away...

This post above is probably a good indication we are going to get shellacked

First big snow since moving to Columbia. We're on the 8th floor and I've lost my ruler so no official measurement. It's dumping out there the last hour, though. Looks like two reports near me of over 9 inches so I'd assume I'm around the same.

You do realize that he is a professional meteorologist. If you want to butt heads with somebody - probably going to lose that battle going up against a red tagger and people like psuhoffman and Bob Chill. Yes...we can fail. Glad you're taking the ops and claiming "persistence" - the fact is we have a snowfall enroute for this weekend...that alone has broken your persistence theory.

Wut... That's now how that works. The ensembles are run with each member having slightly varied initial conditions. The ensembles don't automatically paint a better picture. Okay - I'm done. Thread can go back to normal programming.

Nobody is "acting like we're guaranteed to get slammed" - You really should post a little less. you're contributing almost nothing to the discussion at this point. The 20th is 9 days away. Glad that because the GFS and Euro show something similar it's locked in to be a cutter. If you're so sure that we are cooked for the 20th - why don't you just stop posting until the next threat pops in. There's nothing wrong with discussion - but if you're just going to pollute threads with crap don't post at all. Ever wonder why you rarely see me in threads during the winter until it's the obs thread? Because I know I don't have much to add and I'd just clutter the threads. A high post count doesn't make for a smarter poster. Don't go for quantity over quality... I get it - we've all been there before. I was weenie tagged in the EUSWX days. Just take a step back... ETA: you aren't even in the right subforum...if you're going to come into a subforum outside of your region...you need to at least be courteous of the other members. I don't come derail discussions in the PA forums.

Fantastic write-up! Always enjoy reading your posts!

Party like it's 2007.

I'm pretty sure you can change your own username in the user settings!

You really think by Monday or Tuesday we'll be "locked in"? How long have you been in this hobby?

More members would be nice as well...but not sure they have the computing power available for that?

Yoda will still post them but preceded by "FWIW" or "we take"

06z FV3 looks like it goes for a Miller A at the end of the run hehe

Started a few weeks ago.