Kmlwx

96hr mark on CIPS is starting to light up more than before.

I haven't even looked at any potential of big synoptic wind behind the system either - with a storm of this nature that's always a threat as well. And like you said, any strong winds on saturated ground is going to do some damage. I still maintain that I'd prefer to be down in SEVA - but things look okay right now even up our way. Encouraged also by these dynamic systems - gives me hope we can line up something in May or June with a lot more instability and maybe still good shear etc.

I think the biggest questions we need to answer are - How much surface based instability is going to be available locally in DC/Balt: Right now that looks like maybe a max of 500J/kg in a narrow tongue - Will the wind field be well-timed with whatever we get?: Models had been suggesting the best winds would be racing well east of our area by 15z, that slowing has continued, though. - Does any sort of mini-low form separate from the system? It looks more consolidated on some of the more recent guidance.

The one thing that keeps me muted on Monday (other than our usual "we always fail" mantra) is how much rainfall is progged for Sun night to Mon AM - that could serve to just stabilize the heck out of us.

In fact, that GFS run seems to indicate there could be some instability around in a narrow band at around 15z. Also, some of the winds at 15z and 18z are stronger than last run. Keep the trend going!

6z GFS was a smidge slower again it looks like.

Looking at the sounding climatology page on the SPC site - it looks like some of the 925mb and 850mb wind speeds the models are putting out for Monday around 12z, they'd be near record levels...not just for the date but in general.

Last 4 runs of GFS - clear trend.

At some point, the trend is likely to slow or stop...and the GFS is still a fast outlier. Easy to toss with the other models against it - but it could also be a compromise. EE rule? lol

Also - while not a BIG signal by any means - the 108hr on CIPS from from the 12z suite is showing some severe potential in the Mid-Atlantic/PA area. 5/6-7/1991 is showing up for a few runs now. 4/16/1994 as well 4/19-20/2013 which looks good on the maps.

I'd feel much better if I was sitting down in Richmond or elsewhere in SEVA for this. I'll track it until we fail...but I'm just not sure this is going to be a win for us. Certainly a low probability thing up near mappyville.

For Monday - The 12z EURO warms us pretty nicely (low to mid 80s in VA even). Has a little low down in southern VA. Not sure that'll do it for us up here. It'll be a close call regardless. Still time to go - a bit more of a slowing trend would help us as well perhaps. A front crossing between 21z and 0z would be ideal from a heating standpoint.

Attention gets to turn to Monday potential now. Latest GFS sends a little low through NC it looks like. Not going to do it for us.

Take a look at those velocity returns behind the front back on the WV/VA border. Seeing 65mph pixels. Beam is a few thousand feet up there, though.

Interesting because that is a very common "starting point" for damaging wind cores into the metro area. I can recall a few that had a big bundle of great velocity returns on radar before dealing damage into the metro area. Believe there was one in July earlier in the 2010s.

Core of damaging winds.

Very nice velocity presentation on the warning - just north of WInchester heading ESE.

CIPS has been pretty weak for our area...but it also goes off of the American guidance so I'm not surprised. I think Sunday is more or less off the table for us at the moment. Monday is definitely our window. I could see this being a relatively early day situation for us (before 1pm) - so we'll need to either hope it's one of those "don't need sunshine" days or hope for some continued slowing down of the system. That little low on the map above is going to be very jumpy the next few days. Suspect some runs it won't even show up on, others it might be too far south for us. Fickle hobby we have.

Usual caveats apply - and that's only 24 hour time steps. Wonder where it goes from there. I'm still mostly assuming we won't get enough warm sector...but we'll see how things trend in the next few days. Makes a huge difference if it goes ENE from there or if it rides the Blue Ride area to the NE.

12z Euro tracks the main low for Sun/Mon potential event up into the Detroit area. Has a little low in the vicinity of Bath/Alleghany County, VA at 12z Monday.

Memory post -

Would any small-scale influences like the Potomac have impacted that? Or maybe the boundary that was around the Potomac River from the activity earlier in the day? Or would those types not have been significant enough factors to change much?

It does seem like for tomorrow - east of our area has a better shot. As much as I don't want to jump to 80s and humidity very quickly...it would be fun to get some exciting bonafide severe days in here soon. early April is still a bit early of course...but this is the time of year when it's not quite as hard as March or earlier. Hoping we can track something more than gusty showers. The storms last night were pretty nice - hell of a lightning show in the 4am hour .

Monday looks like our shot from the big storm system. If the slower solutions are correct there could be some decent warm temps on Monday and storms.

I've had some signal differences with the 162.450 frequency at my parent's house compared to the past few years. Certain parts of the house that got great reception before, no longer do. And corners of the house where it would seem no radio signal could be received are now excellent. 162.550 used to be my go-to until the 450 one came online.