Kmlwx

@Eskimo Joe, @yoda, @high risk - @George BM is calling for SPC to issue a HIGH RISK for somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast

Destined to flip at some point. Likely just in time for spring. April is bound to be rainy and raw.

The low pressure on the Euro doesn't pass as close to us as the event a few weeks ago. But the H5 chart is ripe looking.

It looks really nice. I wish CIPS Analogs ran on the Euro...would be interested to see what that spit out. 132 hours away isn't even that far...

I'm about to look...if I am not blown away I will be disappointed.

Severe Wx is a much higher probability event type to track around here vs tropical.

Unfortunately - at least based on this - it's not doing much for the ice so far. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Not even speaking about snow - but the weather in general just looks incredibly boring. Had it not been for that surprise TOR/severe day this would have been an exceedingly boring stretch...unless you like tracking steady rain. If we can't score with winter weather...I hope spring brings some excitement at least.

Why did NWS set the default radar view when you click the radar on the website to be composite? It's misleading IMO. It used to default to base reflectivity.

I want a deep freeze to cut down on the annoying bugs in spring and summer. I bet we have a huge mosquito season if not.

@csnavywx thanks for the great explanation for us weenies!

And in the morning no less. Very, very impressive event even by normal severe season standards.

This is only the beginning. Here's the seasonal projection from the weenie simulation - Rest of February - Not much but maybe some gusty showers March - Regular bouts of severe synoptic wind following behind monster lows with squalls and wedges rapidly raking the area. April - Regular bouts of moist, warm air clashing with high shear events to warm us up for peak season. May - Daily wedges June - Daily wedges centered on the mall.

Low CAPE, high shear events fail for us like 90 percent of the time.

Let's do this again with 80+ degree temps and 65+ dews.

We always seem to "luck" our way into at least one severe weather "event" every February. Then we usually go mostly dormant until April or May.

Come join the dark side over in my severe season thread!

Intense drive just now from the Colesville area to the Potomac/Rockville area. Wish I could have grabbed a picture of the clouds.

I looked at the CFS supercell composite maps on the COD page last night. This winter sucks.

Upper air maps are posted here plenty.

No it's locked in. 8 days is the "rule" for whether something is happening or not.

EF-2 is exciting from a distance - but locally it's just too populated to hope for anything like that. Imagine if we pulled a prolonged ring of fire derecho pattern and then topped it off with a tropical system in the fall. Would easily make up for a dreadful winter (barring late turn around).

This is an excellent start to the thread. My only issue with derecho patterns is that they can be very hot ones...worth it for excitement I guess.

It's only January...but with the winter season looking incredibly bleak...let's fire up the 2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Disco Thread. May our lack of winter weather this season forebode a spring and summer FULL of the folllowing @yoda copying and pasting @Eskimo Joe being bullish on events @mappy getting to break out some GIS skills on something local @Ian popping in to tell us the upcoming pattern looks ripe @high risk with ample opportunity to educate us and keep our hopes high when it looks like we won't get sun before an event. As a reminder - the Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Reference Scale is displayed below - @WxWatcher007 to credit for this. Let's shoot for a moderate risk in 2020.

I'll be black out drunk by 10am...