ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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The forcing kind of runs into a brick wall to the northeast...though I'm guessing the best push makes it a little further northeast than a lot of those solutions that truly shaft them.
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There's a part of Stickney Hill Rd that goes up to like 1250 feet there. Probably the weeniest spot around until you get much further north into central ORH county.
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No, he was a private contractor. He did do some work for DPWs around that area though. He always reported the most in Union...he'd sometimes give me numbers from nearby areas too if he was out on the job but Union was almost always the highest....no surprise given the elevation. I wanna say he was over 1100 feet on Webster Rd....real weenie spot.
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I should text my old contact in Union for the hell of it tonight.
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I'm actually legit curious to see what your trees and shrubs look like there if you stay all snow....it will be interesting. The column is near-isothermal there for like 5000 feet. So you might have some pancakes falling when that deep omega comes through combined with the good snow growth profile above the isothermal layer.
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Lol, using pike north triggers him....it has for over a decade. I think '07-'08 scarred him for life in so many of those events....then MLK 2010 pushed him over the edge....just throwing tantrums in his basement....he laid out the blueprint on how to throw furniture in the basement years before Scooter did it in 2015. Now mentioning the term is like PTSD for him.
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Nice. Crack open a good 14 year or 18 year while you're at it. Setting the alarm for about 1-2am here....with the kids these days I need to at least get a few hours before the night owl obs.
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Yeah you'll prob be hovering right at freezing....maybe just a tick below during the heaviest stuff.
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You might be ground zero for the waterlogged ratios....lol. I'm guessing you stay mostly snow there, but it's gonna be isothermal 33F paste....bring 'em down.
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The CT/RI snows could be like waterlogged paste....3-4" could really start causing some issues. Looking at those 925mb temps at 6z...it's close call so it's gonna be wet.
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Haha, this post was definitely designed to trigger Tolland residents.
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Slightly less than earlier
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Def a known bias...model qpf tends to put the max a little south of where the best ML fronto actually is. They become a little low-level happy. But most of SNE is going to rip at some point in this as the fronto stuff comes in from southwest to northeast. It may linger a bit longer up north though as it deforms out.
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Here's the BDL sounding at 1am on the 3km NAM....look at that crosshair sig on the omega plus the really deep MAUL
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Yeah prob around that time for CT...closer to midnight-2 I'd guess when it looks the best there and then an hour or two later further northeast. There's also a really good crosshair sig on the front end of this....so there could be some pretty sick rates for a couple hours.
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It's a very deep MAUL too...like well over 200mb thick...so that signifcantly increases the chance of TSSN.
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DTW with the rare 1/8 SM obs KDTW 171359Z 19004KT 1/8SM R03R/2000V2800FT +SN FG VV004 00/M02 A3017 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 P0001 T00001017
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Most models have looked great there in the midlevels. The ideal situation is to get the thump and then it deforms overhead as the whole thing starts sliding east
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Yeah I know there's probably amounts in other parts of the valley, but we can only go with the data we have and maybe extrapolate to a reasonable distance. But it was def bugging me after you said BDL had 1.3"....surprised I missed a first order station, so I at least wanted to get that on there.
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Jerry's massive fetish RPM maps....here's 09z...12z coming out as we speak
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Updated, lol:
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Yeah I actually must have just omitted or accidentally forgot to plot BDL on there. I do remember getting a much of traces on the valley locations. A lot of them being coops that probably waited until the morning of 5/10 to measure so they may have not captured measurable that had fallen the previous evening. That's always a risk with doing maps of veyr late season events....your data is more susceptible to obs time biases.
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BOS is a lock to get at least an inch. Any ptype algorithm that has BOS as rain with a 950mb temp of like -0.5C is tossed. (I'm looking at you GFS)
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I remember the 4/26/00 event too. Terribly forecasted IIRC. Had 2-3" in ORH county. Surprise ULL. Those Lowell numbers are prob way lowballed in '87 and '77 though....but that coop I think typically only measured once per day, so that time of the year if you miss the measurement at the end, then you'll prob be measuring melting slush hours later.
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4/19/18....yeah there was some light accumulations in spots.
