ORH_wxman

That western ridge is pretty pumped in the long range…esp on the EPS. Feel like the pattern is pretty ripe for a good setup on this look…hopefully the shortwaves cooperate

It is def possible but that’s always a risk when you have arctic cold pushing well south. I’m less worried in early December though when the baroclinic zone is much stronger near the coast and also further north versus, say, mid-January or something. You can’t really predict it very well though since it’s so dependent on individual shortwaves diving into the mean trough and the models can’t see those yet.

18z Euro looks kind of interesting at 144. Antecedent airmass isn’t great but cold enough for wet snow for a chunk of SNE and NY state..esp away from coast. Ideally, we’d like to trend both that TPV push E and SE and the shortwave a bit sharper at the same time

Early December is going to have a much better antecedent airmass I think for any threats. I think the coast would struggle mightily on these Tday/Friday solutions where the storm gets close enough. Still 6-7 days out though on next week’s threat so too early to be super confident either direction. It was colder this run but also flat…but if you can drive the cold in and then trend the shortwave sharper, then we could end up with a more widespread winter wx solution.

Yeah it should help fill in the huge bare spot in snow cover over Ontario. The extended range almost looks like a cold El Nino pattern with a big Aleutian low and corresponding PNA ridge....couple with a -WPO over the top....we'll see how that actually verifies, but if it's correct, then we're going to be in a cold pattern right through mid-December at minimum....it's not exactly an unstable pattern if it sets up. I'm still skeptical of these amazing N PAC looks on model guidance, but at the very minimum, we're not dealing with overtly hostile variations that we've had over the past couple winters.

GGEM is a pretty significant system Tday night.

Nobody’s getting accumulations in this airmass outside of the highest terrain unless it absolutely rips. Gotta watch it because it’s a bit unstable with that H5 cold pool aloft but you will still need those rates to overcome the BL.

Cautiously optimistic. Haven’t seen signs of the N PAC turning to crap. If anything, it improves as we get closer. Things can still go wrong but much better hemispheric look compared to recent winters.

18z GFS would have all our ponds frozen by the first week of December. Pattern of yore.

Yeah it’s one of those scenarios where if you can rip the column with massive omega, there could be a few hours of a surprise heavy wet snow. Column needs to cool a decent amount but we know huge dynamics can do it if they pan out.

I'd still give tomorrow night a low prob of something in the hills. Some guidance has it and some doesn't and some favor different areas. Just gonna have to wait and see. Plan on nothing, and be pleasantly surprised if it's more than a few wet flakes.

Yep, and I'll take a needle threader 33-34F event if offered right now....beggars can't be choosers....esp when: 1. The last 2.5 winters have been complete dogshit 2. It's still November....trying to get a 4-8" 26F powder deal isn't all that easy in November....even during Novembers of yore. That said, at least this is the *first* threat on the front end of a favorable pattern....there's prob more in the tank here as we go into early December assuming the ensembles aren't totally off their rocker.

Pattern is def more mature by the first week of December and basic climo is rapidly working in our favor by then. There's also some signs of west coast ridging during the first week of December....I'll believe it when I see it, but if it occurs, that would also help. Still, Tday not out of question yet.

Only issue I'd like to see be avoided (assuming we get a system in the first place) is for the PV lobe to not be stretched or pushed far enough eastward....we've seen a couple different solutions since 00z last night where the true colder airmass didn't quite advect into our area prior to the system, so it ends up more marginal. That cause of it was the TPV hanging back a little bit or being just weaker in general which prevent that stronger push of high pressure. Could still snow in that setup, but it would prob be much wetter and more elevation-dependent for accumulations.

That's the type of profile where latent cooling can help a lot too. Melting all those -3C to -4C aggregates is gonna use up a lot of energy and cool the BL. But obviously you want heavy rates to maximize the cooling.

The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens.

Both were pretty cold right before the event. 2002 had a quick arctic shot a few days after the event where I think temps got near 0.

Yes. 2002 and 2003 both had events on 12/5.

For those who like visuals…you can see what I mean on the H5 plot here. Stretched out TPV lobe to our north and northeast which really holds that high in by acting as a brick wall and forcing the confluence with the trough moving eastward. That look has been largely absent the last couple winters.

One thing very nice synoptically about that setup is the TPV stretch lobe to our north and northeast. It really acts as a brick wall holding in a pretty legit airmass. That’s obviously key this early in the season to realizing any significant winter threat.

Thanks man. Being a truth-seeker isn't easy on that topic....my style is def more suited for the weather side. I wouldn't dismiss Friday night so handily....I'm not expecting some huge surprise snowstorm, but there could def be a burst of moderate or even heavy snow over elevated interior with that deep ULL moving just underneath us. I think temps would mostly prohibit any accumulation (except again, higher terrain if we cna get a moderate burst or better)...but first flakes are possible for many. Could even be a nasty cold steady rain on the coastal plain for a few hours friday night. We'll see, but unstable atmosphere with a bit of inflow should always be watched a bit.

Or posting empirical-based election predictions in OT while simultaneously trying to avoid getting dogpiled. At least there’s a pattern worth tracking. More than we can say for 80% of the last two winters.

Yeah this is why I’m questioning whether we revert to a 2-3 week torch after early December. I could def see a relaxation but if that WPO/EPO is going to keep reloading, then it would be difficult to remain AN for long stretches. We’ll see though…we’ve been faked out before on some of this longer range N PAC stuff the last few winters but at least we already have the good WPO/EPO in place this time.

I like that there's no real sign of breaking down the -WPO/EPO in the extended range on ensembles. That's going to be a key on whether December can sustain some good cold and snow chances or if we just get a 7-10 day transient period from near T-day to Dec 5th or so.

Yes. I was just joking to Scott further up in the thread in when the last time we saw a good high in eastern Ontario and western Quebec was? I can’t remember one at all recently. I think maybe the Feb 2023 event but my god, it’s been like pulling teeth to get one. Meanwhile, the weather gods were tossing them out like Halloween candy in the 2000s/2010s. I remember some of those SWFEs when it looked bad a few days out and then all of the sudden inside of 96 hours, “hey that high north of CAR has really trended stronger. We might get a warning front end thump”. Recently, Quebec highs have trended over the Flemish cap.