ORH_wxman

We’ve had both NW trends and SE trends and basically no trends this winter. The 12/17-18 and 12/28 SWFEs were pretty damned amped in the medium range and they trended colder into SWFEs. Both did tick NW really late in the game though. 12/1-3 never really came NW. It was pretty steady as an SNE/CNE special the whole time inside of 4-5 days aside from a wobble here and there. 1/6-7 didn’t come NW when we needed it...it was a big hit in medium range and then trended southeast into a cranberry bog advisory event and teased everyone the final 48 hours basically not budging during that time. 1/18 I feel like literally didn’t move for like 5 straight days. It was an advisory SWFE pretty much the entire time for almost the whole forum and never changed much. 1/25 trended 500 miles northwest inside of 84 hours...

No, It’s a bit southeast. I was actually expecting to see it further NW based on the OP run but this is still too close to close the books on...esp with that trend in energy of dropping the trailing shortwave behind and injecting more energy from plains northern stream.

12z EPS. Looks pretty good at 78 but it kicks east pretty sharply at 84. Can’t see individual members

Scraper this run. Really close to being a lot more.

Yeah we want that lead to get phased in to prevent it from escaping east. Starting to happen this run though not all the way.

This is going to hit at least eastern areas with something.

Euro looks better through 60. It dumped that trailing energy back south so the northern might be able to grab the lead shortwave. That’s a good trend.

Not gonna get it done. It’s almost like that lead southern vort is the perfect strength to screw us. If it didn’t exist then we’d probably have a big storm...if it was stronger, it would probably ride up the eastern side of the trough and hit us...but being weak it sort of just front runs ENE and whiffs is while taking the baroclinic zone out to sea.

It’s possible next week has a gradient type system where we’re north of the gradient. More likely in NNE but the overall trend the pst few days has been to flatten the system mid-week. Trend could easily reverse or continue. We probably won’t know more until we clear out the weekend garbage too.

Is there even a good analog for this happening like shown? It’s funny, I was parsing through the cips analogs from last night and noticed that all of the top analogs hit us hard when looking at the T+72 timeframe which is about 24 hours before the storm “hits”. Makes me wonder that we’re either going to see a hit or it’s going to look notably different by the time we get closer if it’s a miss.

Just saw the 12z runs so far. What a huge difference in northern stream on GFS and GGEM. Still not quite enough for the surface to slam us but that level of change in one run is pretty substantial inside of 84 hours. I saw Dendrite’s post about that little weak lead shortwave...I agree that you almost wonder if that trends into nothing and we get something bigger behind it...of course maybe we’re just doomed to see an incredibly well-placed deepening trough produce nothing.

12z today is shit or get off the pot time. Need to see improvement. At least for most of the region. SE areas can prob have it hold serve and push it out another run or two.

Here’s the 06z eps mean

Why isn’t February going to be good? Maybe I missed something but I didn’t see any big changes in guidance.

06z euro beefed up the northern stream again but it is still not enough this run.

Next week is trending a lot flatter. Might end up frozen for NNE at least...but some runs try and keep SNE frozen too

Not the trends we wanted to see overnight. Gonna need 12z to come back the right direction or it’s probably toast.

I started a thread....been a while for me. Lets see if I have any luck

The current guidance is still a bit all over the map in terms of whether this threat will be a larger impact and how the storm will even evolve. The most bullish camp is the ECMWF/UKMET suite combo which are giving large portions of New England warning criteria snowfall....GGEM is trying to be a SE MA scraper and the GFS is a flat out whiff. I didn't bother looking at the bottom feeders (ICON/JMA/NAVGEM etc) Here's the 18z EPS which followed a drastic improvement on the 18z OP ECMWF....a significantly stronger northern stream injection occuring and that trend actually began on the 12z run but increased on the 18z run. And the EPS has followed suit each run. Here's a list of pros and cons for the system: Pros for further west track: 1. Stronger northern stream injection? (mostly shown by the Euro suite, but it obviously carries some weight) 2. Western ridge is building during the early stages of cyclogenesis 3. Good infusion of gulf moisture (latent heat release helps pump up downstream ridging?) Cons for further west track: 1. Fast flow with no downstream blocking 2. Ridge is somewhat flat-topped even if it is building in the early stages... 3. Multiple shortwaves could cause destructive wave interference if northern stream is not strong enough to overcome

Wow. EPS coming in really zonked.

A euro type trend would definitely make this act more like a miller B

N stream is so different on euro vs GFS. That’s going to be the key to getting a hit. The bigger N stream influence.

Yeah it could easily not verify....the last big change failed of course. But if it did verify, that's pretty big cold for the northern tier.

240 is a snapshot in time....there's a really quick reload in there, but the 5 day mean is already average over Canada...there's already below average temps moving across in the first first burst from 144-192. Then it goes gangbusters on the reload.