ORH_wxman

It’s possible next week has a gradient type system where we’re north of the gradient. More likely in NNE but the overall trend the pst few days has been to flatten the system mid-week. Trend could easily reverse or continue. We probably won’t know more until we clear out the weekend garbage too.

Is there even a good analog for this happening like shown? It’s funny, I was parsing through the cips analogs from last night and noticed that all of the top analogs hit us hard when looking at the T+72 timeframe which is about 24 hours before the storm “hits”. Makes me wonder that we’re either going to see a hit or it’s going to look notably different by the time we get closer if it’s a miss.

Just saw the 12z runs so far. What a huge difference in northern stream on GFS and GGEM. Still not quite enough for the surface to slam us but that level of change in one run is pretty substantial inside of 84 hours. I saw Dendrite’s post about that little weak lead shortwave...I agree that you almost wonder if that trends into nothing and we get something bigger behind it...of course maybe we’re just doomed to see an incredibly well-placed deepening trough produce nothing.

12z today is shit or get off the pot time. Need to see improvement. At least for most of the region. SE areas can prob have it hold serve and push it out another run or two.

Here’s the 06z eps mean

Why isn’t February going to be good? Maybe I missed something but I didn’t see any big changes in guidance.

06z euro beefed up the northern stream again but it is still not enough this run.

Next week is trending a lot flatter. Might end up frozen for NNE at least...but some runs try and keep SNE frozen too

Not the trends we wanted to see overnight. Gonna need 12z to come back the right direction or it’s probably toast.

I started a thread....been a while for me. Lets see if I have any luck

The current guidance is still a bit all over the map in terms of whether this threat will be a larger impact and how the storm will even evolve. The most bullish camp is the ECMWF/UKMET suite combo which are giving large portions of New England warning criteria snowfall....GGEM is trying to be a SE MA scraper and the GFS is a flat out whiff. I didn't bother looking at the bottom feeders (ICON/JMA/NAVGEM etc) Here's the 18z EPS which followed a drastic improvement on the 18z OP ECMWF....a significantly stronger northern stream injection occuring and that trend actually began on the 12z run but increased on the 18z run. And the EPS has followed suit each run. Here's a list of pros and cons for the system: Pros for further west track: 1. Stronger northern stream injection? (mostly shown by the Euro suite, but it obviously carries some weight) 2. Western ridge is building during the early stages of cyclogenesis 3. Good infusion of gulf moisture (latent heat release helps pump up downstream ridging?) Cons for further west track: 1. Fast flow with no downstream blocking 2. Ridge is somewhat flat-topped even if it is building in the early stages... 3. Multiple shortwaves could cause destructive wave interference if northern stream is not strong enough to overcome

Wow. EPS coming in really zonked.

A euro type trend would definitely make this act more like a miller B

N stream is so different on euro vs GFS. That’s going to be the key to getting a hit. The bigger N stream influence.

Yeah it could easily not verify....the last big change failed of course. But if it did verify, that's pretty big cold for the northern tier.

240 is a snapshot in time....there's a really quick reload in there, but the 5 day mean is already average over Canada...there's already below average temps moving across in the first first burst from 144-192. Then it goes gangbusters on the reload.

Looks like that changes drastically if ensembles are correct....they could be wrong of course, but I don't see Canada with above normal temps after about 2/4 or 2/5.

EPS gone wild today with the PAC ridging.

Not a pack winter....just enjoy tracking the storm itself. With some luck, we get a lot from the storm and the mild up is like a couple days of 40s with relatively low dews and a dry fropa.

Dude, beginning 2nd week of February is when we really liked it....After the 5-6th timeframe. Could sneak an event in before that (Feb 1-2 right now)....no guarantee we get that mild either....some of the guidance is a little flatter for the 2/3-5 timeframe.

It tracked closer. 00z was pretty awful...I'm not counting that little shit front-runner low that dropped like an inch of slop on the 00z run. We don't want this if we're trying to get a real storm in here.

Yeah....I mean at some point w'ere gonna have to quit the foreplay and see a real solution by the Euro, but we haven't quite reached that point yet. But by tonight or tomorrow I think. That's when we'll be getting inside of 4 days.

Gonna still be a miss or scraper, but that's a drastically better look....tons of N stream energy diving in....I'll bet ensembles are better than 06z.

Euro look more amped out west with the ridge....this might be a bit better than 00z.