ORH_wxman

Not sure why you keep repeating this...it doesn't look that good. Especially further south where you are. Maybe into the 2nd week of December it's not a terrible look, but the first week looks like crap....you'd have to get lucky from the ULL in early December to get anything.

Maybe but the guidance distinctly has a problematic flow into Canada still present in the first few days of December....which it then backs off as we get into the post-12.5 range....now maybe that's wrong and the amplitude out west verifies sharper prior to 12/5....then ok, fine, we could increase the odds of a snow event if that occurred. Obviously the extra 7-10 days of climo also helps if we're comparing 12/2 to 12/11 or something...no denying that.

I would say that list is heavily biased after about Dec 6-7. I wouldn't totally argue against something around then or later if we can get that PNA to produce some semi-continental air at our disposal.

We could pull something off in first week of December if it is well-timed but I'm definitely not expecting it. It would serve us well to wait for at least a little bit of EPO-easing. We don't need a nuclear ridge there, but we need enough to flush the putrid dreck out of Canada.

Nope, Jan 2006 had over 2 feet at ORH...a couple solid warning events (Jan 2-3 and Jan 23) mixed with a couple smaller ones.

Agreed. I’m keeping my eye on it closely to see if we don’t really get the better look closer. The last 36 hours has kind of left it beyond d13-14.

Yeah I'd be surprised if we got anything decent (say, advisory or better) in SNE prior to 12/10.

Yeah I’m not buying first week of December. Too early imho as the air masses are putrid. I mean, anything is possible with perfect timing but I don’t think you are going to get the source region in better shape until post-12/5

Let’s hope that’s it instead of 1999-2000 or 2011-2012. Im hoping it’s closer to 1975-1976....garbage pattern for a time in November and the first half of December was repulsive with an AK pig but then it retrograded into an Aleutian low and we rocked the 2nd half of December. Huge pre-Xmas multi-wave event that gave BOS like 17” or 18”. Kind of weird that in contrast to typical Nina, that year produced an Aleutian low for quite a chunk of the winter (a lot of January had one too).

Gonna take some time though to reload Canada. First week of December will probably be a furnace across the CONUS even if we’re starting to see some changes in the PAC.

Less than 7 months until the sun angle decreases from its peak.

This pattern is absolute garbage. Once it becomes a little less hostile (signs of this happening as we go into early December) I’d expect some real threats to start happening for NNE.

Yeah anything before 12/5ish is probably going to have very little cold air. Best bet is post-12/10 on that look. Hopefully NNE and upstate NY can get an event or two before that though. It’s in our best interest to lay down some pack there.

Yeah down there I think you had 1/7-8/17 and 2/9/17.

Yeah feel free to start a new thread for it. Prob the easiest way. Maybe @dendrite can chime in.

This is pretty nice. One thing I personally like is seeing a few number values plotted on the actual map but not sure if that’s too difficult if you have so many obs.

I gotta find one from like 1/12 or so. I think it went way more nuts. What a disaster that was. For several runs it was basically showing a near-2015 pattern.

This isn’t bad at all. We’re going the right direction. Best EPS long range yet...still need to get this closer obviously and even that look is only the beginning of the change.

That’s a pretty nice look though if we can get it. Hopefully EPS trend toward that. They’ve been kind of straddling the line between hideous and something closer to GEFS.

Last 3 or 4 frames on EPS were encouraging. You could see this big height rise starting near AK/Aleutians.

I was taking a winter session class that year so I was actually there for the Jan 3-4 storm which gave ITH like 15”...one of only 2 synoptic storms over 10” while I was there (actually maybe PDII barely got there too)....the other was March 4-6, 2001 but that literally took like 3 days to get 16” so I almost don’t count that one. Lol. We did get a great streamer my freshman year on the backside of the Jan 25, 2000 bust. We had like 7-8” in 4 hours behind that storm. So the “total” was like 13” but we used LES for more than half of it. You were there for some excellent storms. Feb ‘66 was epic there.

That’s pretty awesome. My grandparents had a full nut-producing American Chestnut tree in their backyard in the 1980s and into the early 1990s. We noticed the trunk started cracking in about 1993 or 1994 and by 1995 it was clearly going to kill the tree so they cut it down. I didn’t realize until years later how relatively rare it was to still have a fully mature healthy tree like that as late as the early 1990s. But it made sense in retrospect because they lived out in the sticks and had a huge yard....and the tree was toward the middle of the yard away from any other trees. The isolation probably kept it alive for so long. I knew someone who had one that was healthy even a lot more recently than that but it eventually succumbed around 8-10 years ago.

My 4 years in Ithaca NY were like that. Of course, it drives you mad after a while because it snows for like 2 weeks straight and you have about 3” on the ground to show for it.

Yeah I'm hoping it doesn't migrate back though. The weeklies yesterday had it planting over AK for pretty much all of December. Weeklies can obviously be wrong (they've had some brutal stretches this year, including back in January), but you'd like to see the ensembles continue the trend over the next week. I'd like to see at least one transient ridge shoot up into Bering/AK just to get Canada reloaded. It's pretty torched. It could use a refresh. The PNA ridging would be a lot more effective with a fresh cold dump prior to it. But beggars can't be choosers I guess.

Yeah it's not a good pattern yet there but it is a lot better than what we've see before that. Hopefully we trend the PNA positive a bit more beyond 12/5.