ORH_wxman

Euro might be a grid failure for ORH.

Wondering of those other models had the right idea before they caved....guess there could still be a spike this afternoon, but starting to doubt it

Foreign models have liked the front end thump....American models hate it...NAM was meager too.

That's the flattest run I've seen in a while from any model. Doesn't get the primary west of the apps once north of TN/KY.

2008 was forecasted pretty well once about 48-60 hours out. A lot of models were terrible with the CAD though...esp GFS, but even the Euro kind of sucked. Euro was trying to drive the low over interior New England. But most of us (including Mets at NWS Box) we’re not buying it and siding with the meso models that tracked it over SE MA. NAM did well in that event though it was actually just a hair too cold until inside of 24h...had ice a little further south than what actually materialized. But back then the NAM had a colder bias at the sfc in CAD...something it doesn’t have now.

Euro def got more interesting for the siggy ice idea late Thursday night/Friday morning. Most 00z guidance did actually. The snow thump got a bit better too...esp pike north. W’ell have to see if that’s a real trend or if it just goes back warmer at 12z.

I didn’t say I believed that’s what would happen. Just that it gets a lot more interesting if it does. If it trends the other way and goes warmer, it merely goes from meh to total snoozer.

18z euro came in a little less amped. Not a massive change from 12z but another one or two like that and we’re looking pretty darned wintry again.

I didn’t bother looking at it. I almost never do.

Yeah they are garbage for the midatlantic but actually not bad for New England. Plenty of cold nearby. It’s classic gradient. Everyone here should know it by now...sometimes you get hammered for a while and sometimes you can’t catch a break.

60-72h RGEM cooled quite a bit from 12z. Prob the only colder trend I’ve seen all day...and it’s clown range RGEM.

Good grief people...let’s keep at least somewhat on topic. We can’t control the weather so keep the wish lists to banter and focus on February pattern/weather discussion in here.

Tons of cold just north....it's a classic gradient pattern. Hopefully it breaks our way, and certainly breaks NNE's way for good skiing.

Here's the pattern on EPS going forward after the 2/9 "threat"

EPS keeping the general pattern the same going forward with the gradient look....massive EPO ridging but also a monster +AO and SE ridge. Very active look....there will be a lot of chances and plenty of cold up in the source region. It's going to be about getting lucky on the timing of confluence, etc.

I hate 40F+ in winter....unfrozen ground and mud sucks. I agree I hate brutal cold with no snow...but for me, like 30F is ideal. Keep ground frozen and ponds frozen. If the ground was able to dry out, then it's fine, but it just doesn't do that in winter very often...too much old snow and ice crap runoff. Anyways.....EPS have the 2/9 system. We'll see how long it takes for that to disappear.

It's two different waves people were talking about....the Thursday wave was further north, but Friday came south some.

Gave a bit of a better thump on the snow on the front, but it doesn't stop the warmer solution after that.

Euro is going to come in more amped...definite trend today on the 12z guidance of more consolidated energy. This continues the 00z trend....we're starting to get a consistent movement that doesn't flip-flop every run. We'll see if 00z tonight continues that...if it does, then I think we have a confident forecast for this one.

Solid overcast here and 40F...pretty much pure dogshit. Reminds me of late March or early April.

Something like the GGEM would be a much bigger problem for icing over the interior. You want to see that mesolow protruding northeast off E MA and into the Gulf of maine.

GFS ripping the primary further west and stronger....this will be a warmer run. Consolidating the energy out west as it ejects...less sheared.

Yeah I'd hedge liquid at the moment, but it wouldn't take a large change to completely flip that on its head.

Yeah the mesolow aspect of this may not be figured out for a quite a while. IT's so fickle but it would have huge consequences for snesible wx....you get a little cold tuck behind the nose of the mesolow going off Boston and into gulf of Maine and all of the sudden you aren't going to be latently warming...keep that in place for round 2 (which looks like it could be a big QPF producer) and you have legit ice storm concerns. My guess is that stuff will become clearer in the next 24-36 hours....either it will be obvious we don't have the setup for a replenishing dewpoint drain...so we see a slow rise to 33F rain, or this thing shows its hand on being a colder scenario.

I was gonna say....I had over 90 inches in 2017-2018....lol