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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Too bad we didn’t have another panel of the NAM. Classic 84h NAM
  2. ORH_wxman
    I remember the euro barfing in that event. Way too suppressed until like 24h out. Rare loss for it inside of 72h up north. GFS wasn’t exactly great either. It was a win for mesos though in that 48h time range. Can’t remember but maybe Ukie was pretty zonked too? But all the models basically whiffed NYC (or have them nuisance snows) when we were at the time range we are now for the current threat.
  3. ORH_wxman
    He’s anticipating a massive capture and retrograde.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I dunno like two other models trended north at 12z. GFS even bumped slightly north even though it is still the furthest south model. Euro trended slightly south. I’m not seeing any sort of golden nugget here by the GFS.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it was similar but definitely a little bit squeezed compared to 00z. I get that everyone is dying for a huge system, but people need to remember this is like 90-96 hours out still. We’re not even using the NAM/RGEM yet...it feels like this should be about 48 hours out given how long we’ve been tracking it but it still has a long ways to go. Never any guarantees but I still like the idea of bumping a bit north given the deep shortwave associated with this.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS not as crazy as 06z (no surprise given the OP was a little south as well)
  7. ORH_wxman
    You are like 5 miles away from getting a death band that run. Lol.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yes it did. Just wasn’t enough for us. 4 days out it was giving NYC cirrus clouds.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Sure and if it zonks north 100 miles you might be worrying about ptype issues.
  10. ORH_wxman
    He’s just being a massive weenie.
  11. ORH_wxman
    You were pretty close to huge northern weenie band...might have been more like pike region to Rt 2 that run. Negligible at this time range. You’re gonna go insane micro-analyzing each run at 96 hours.
  12. ORH_wxman
    That has a pretty sick banding sig for BOS to ORH on Thursday morning.
  13. ORH_wxman
    The S/w was initially stronger this run but the confluence was a little stronger too, so we ended up with opposing forces with the confluence getting the net victory with a slight nudge south. Tonight is when the main shortwave comes on shore out west so we’ll see if that drastically alters the solutions.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Very similar to 00z. Maybe just a split hair south.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks a bit less amped than 00z through 78
  16. ORH_wxman
    Ukie finally more north
  17. ORH_wxman
    NAM upper air was significantly more amplified at the same hour so I doubt it would have moved the same.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah 00z tonight or 06z once it goes out far enough.
  19. ORH_wxman
    NAM doing NAM things at 84h. Damn that is zonked.
  20. ORH_wxman
    It’s def NW of 00z. Esp at 102 hours near the BM.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Maybe an inch or two on the NAM for Monday in most of SNE. Possibly a little higher down near south coast if they can accumulate efficiently. I’m still pretty skeptical about that threat for much more than a C-1” but not impossible to pick up more if some pretty nice fronto can get going for 3-4 hours.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Uncertainty on GEFS disproportionately to the north side. Id be surprised if it didn’t come north.
  23. ORH_wxman
    102h on EPS
  24. ORH_wxman
    06z EPS are maybe a shade more amped than 00z through 96h
  25. ORH_wxman
    Euro was an outlier last storm, it is not this time. The GFS suite is now the outlier (except the new parallel which is quite amped).
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