ORH_wxman

The southern bowling ball was not as shredded this run as it gained latitude....so definitely an improvement, even if the overall result is still meh. Looks like an inch or two for many though over the interior.

Yeah this one was always a bit precarious with the potential to get shredded. I had replied to Ray two days ago that I was more concerned with that than a zonked system trying to run into the Hudson Valley. That said, this could easily come back enough to produce some significant winter sensible wx conditions. We'll just have to see if the ULL can gain some latitude without getting shredded too quickly. Obviously yesterday's guidance was allowing this more than overnight.

FYI, the NAO turned strongly negative in the last 10 days of Nov 2010 and then broke during the 1/12/11 storm. We sustained another 3 weeks of winter after that with a largely favorable Pacific. The NAO did form another weakish block for about a week leading into the 1/26-27/11 event and then broke positive for good IIRC.

Those 6z runs were ugly....we're gonna need a bounce back on 12z or it's probably not much snow out of this one.

This one was more like 3.5-4 days out. Ray started it Monday morning (though we added previous posts to it from the main October thread so it looks like it was started on Sunday) Anyways. This is still a threat for a few inches.

Yeah you get prob 4 or 5 inches this run.

CCB/fronto stuff looks a little more robust. Still not quite what I’d want to see for widespread amounts over 5”, but a good trend. Just need that southern stream vortmax/shortwave to maintain a hair longer. It did better on this run, but we want to see that cyclonic curl in the shortwave when it is at about the latitude of ACK or thereabouts.

18z euro coming in a little more amped than 12z.

If there was a 69h panel I’m sure it would look good. I didn’t see 72 but I’m sure it would show snow over SNE.

Yeah luckily the onslaught ended when it did. We were starting to worry. Incoherent posts at 4am of 03z SREF members and eventually even the old CRAS model made an appearance. LOL....all joking aside, at least in October, it doesn't feel like it hurts as much to miss an event. Of course we all still want it, but we know how anomalous it is and alo there's the entire winter still too look forward to. I'd still watch that lead Zeta shortwave though up in NNE. It's possible you get a few inches from that even if the fronto stuff misses to the south.

Powderfreak during the 2015 run started unraveling pretty badly....he started with models like the GGEM but by the 3rd or 4th event that was giving Boston 20", he was down to randomly posting a single ARW SREF member and talking about how great it was for BTV/N VT. You could just picture him with a bottle of scotch looking for consolation and wondering how Boston turned into Stowe. I do think there is still room for some big changes in this one. There's still some reasonable ensemble spread. But I'd think we'd want to see it start happening by tonight or tomorrow morning if there's going to be a big move.

I don't have really detailed maps but it did look like the EPS were a little more robust than the OP run.

Yep....for ORH it was 5/18/02 to 10/23/02.

Yeah like at 66-72, I was expecting a pretty big finishing CCB over SNE on the next frame and then it got crunched and we just get light snows. Either way, that was a positive trend from 06z at least.

Ugh...it really shears it at the last second, so we don't get that nice little CCB finish like some other guidance had. It's still there, but kind of weakish on the Euro. Not sure I buy how quickly it shears at the end though. That vort looks pretty good at 66-72.

Yeah trough is sharper on the 12z vs 06z run...that bowling ball won't get squashed as quickly.

Ray will be snowing before Kevin does most likely. The 850/925 advection clearly shows that.

You'd prob get a bit more on the Ukie...2m temps look like they lag too much considering what 925 looks like....it has parts of NE MA with like temps of 37F with a 925 of -4C....lol, that's not happening except maybe right along the shore. But the Ukie loves to do this out to like 495 for some reason.

Yes, 00z was super flat...it's more amped than 00z. But it is still on the flat side of 12z guidance.

12z Ukie is coming back more amped...which is no siurprise since it was really flat at 00z.

GGEM is actually a bit more amped than Reggie...not very common to see that. It really hits CNE hard, but it even gets warning snows down to the pike region. 2-4" type event south of that.

The soundings look good on GFS for Friday morning. Good saturation through SGZ. Best lift is actually like 550-600mb there...thats prob midlevel magic going on.

Yeah you'd be close, but prob pick up a couple inches there. RGEM is kind of the "compromise" solution I was talking about with Kevin....in between some of the zonked solutions yesterday and the flatter ones overnight. It's not going to give anyone 18", but you could realistically see some low end warning snow amounts in an RGEM type evolution....esp over interior elevated areas.

RGEM even smokes Scooter later on, lol

Reggie gone wild