ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Oh the HREF I think from SPC site.
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Just one model shown here, but I’ve been noticing it on other guidance too...bit of a crosshair sig showing up for a few hours on Friday morning....we’ll have to watch that. A frequent way to overperform...
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RPM was Jerry’s fetish....gone wild at 00z!
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RPM?
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Rgem looks a bit better than 18z. Not as cold as other guidance though. It’s not giving much snow south of the CT/MA border for some reason. Its been that way for a few runs now though on the temp profiles.
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Those are some nice midlevel goodies on the NAM. Good snow growth look with lift in that 600mb range....and man that is cold in the low levels too
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Yeah they are somewhat rare...but aren’t that crazy unheard of. We do tend to see them in some of our great winters (Dec 1995 to early Jan 1996 comes to mind as well) We don’t need them that crazy though to have great periods. It would be nice to have some transient blocking that went neutral or only modestly positive in between blocking episodes instead of a straight black hole up there like we’ve often seen in recent winters.
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I’m guessing where your place is at 1700 feet would see like 2-4/3-5 or so. There’s still a possibility it ends up higher but for now I’d keep it at those levels....I’d want to see another tick more amplified in southern stream before forecasting 6”+. Maybe above 2k or 2500 on the mountain would see 6”+ in the current setup.
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18z euro looks decent for 1-3” in a lot of SNE. Pretty similar to 12z though the fronto stuff might be even a hair better.
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All 18z runs thus far have trended better. Another tick and maybe a few spots could see low end advisory snows. As is, even just light measurable is impressive in October outside of NNE higher elevations.
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Def a nice little backside CCB/Fronto snow band for SNE this run.
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18z NAM looks more amplified through 21 hours vs 12z...we'll see if that translates to the 2nd part too.
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Lol https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53899-november-2020-discussion/page/2/#comments
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I was just thinking the same thing...."Euro/NAM are most aggressive....getting nostalgic all of the sudden".
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Some decent fronto snows this run for SNE....nothing huge, but probably a lot of folks seeing 1-2".
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12z Euro improving some verss the 06z run.
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Yeah we need the southern piece to come back a little stronger. I wouldn't toss the towel in yet on some light accumulations, but it seems less and less likely we're not going to get the higher end potential which could have been low end warning snowfall for a chunk of the interior.
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UKMET quite a bit uglier than 00z....still tries for some light accumulations over interior SNE/CNE, but nothing like the widespread advisory snows that 00z had.
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Yeah part 2 was the source of most of the snow in all the previous runs....there's a little bit of part 1 snow way up north on more recent runs, but we really want part 2 to crank to give some legit heavy snow....that CAA you talk about also enhances the frontogensis which would drive that heavier snow.
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Yeah that's where their snow will come from....unlike a couple days ago when they were getting the heavy stuff from part 2 on some of those runs. Part 2 is getting shredded and if it produces, it will likely only be for SNE and maybe southern CNE.
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RGEM was maybe marginally better than 06z, not the more noticeable jump that the NAM had. Maybe an inch or so for elevated interior SNE....2-4/3-5 for areas like Mitch/N Berks.
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No, it would start off pretty wet even if it does cool to the upper 20s. But it might not ever get that cold either. You might only make it to like 31 or so....assuming we even have a period of steady snow.
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Yeah there might be, esp in higher terrain. I could see ORH county having some flash freeze issues if we have steady snow and 28-30F.
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Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.
