ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Main show still W and SW but it’s organizing.
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34 and mangled/wet flakes here. Was in a little lull in precip for a little bit. Starting to fill in though. Main show is still W and SW. peak for SNE looks to be between about 9 or 10am and noon. HRRR really goes crazy around 10-11am. Same with RAP.
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00z RPM
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21z RPM
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FWIW that is not the same as other clown maps. It tries to adjust the ratio. That said, it wasn’t as impressive as runs like the euro. I think most will see in the 1-2” range anyway. Maybe some spot 3”+ amounts in higher terrain if this pops like some guidance shows.
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HRRR gone wild. I'd probably slice those numbers in half to get the true forecast.
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Foxborough jackpot on 18z NAM?
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Might not be a bad guess for the jackpot outside of some peak in S VT...there or maybe somewhere in the Berks.
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Not quite as crazy as last night....though much better than some dud runs overnight/earl this morning
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Jackpot pike region.
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Pretty negligible though....very nice period of snow over a chunk of SNE tomorrow AM/midday.
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Euro coming in a hair flatter than 06z. That 06z run may have been the peak.
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Yeah some of these models are so cold....then you have the RGEM, lol.
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pivotal weather will have the euro stuff for free including clown maps. It has most other models too.
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Look at the weenie probability max in blue hills area on the 4 inch probability map on HREF
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Jeez...GFs is dangerously close to hammering SE MA with a really strong CCB. Eveyrthing kind of slides east at the very last second, but you can see how at hour 24, it's going nuts over LI looking like it might hit RI/SE MA. Still, pretty decent solution.
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Reggie is still pretty warm compared to other guidance. Doesn't have much down in CT/C-S RI. It is really slow too...it is still light snow hanging on in SE areas at 00z tomorrow evening.
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Yeah that is a pet peeve of mine...I often tell people. "no, the model did not overpredict the snow, the algorithm that interprets the model data did. Stop using that algorithm....i.e. clown maps"
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Kuchera map is prob more accurate in this scenario.
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600mb goodies on the soundings. Really cold stuff with -6C getting into that 900-925mb range.
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Big improvement on the 12z NAM....that looks really good for tomorrow morning.
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Prob like 3-4" there on that run.
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Yeah 06z Euro was def an improvement, That looks pretty nice for a large chunk fo SNE. Could see some low end advisory amounts over interior if that panned out.
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It’s a lot better than 18z. Which is pretty ugly and the flattest outlier so not a surprise it came north.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_012h_mean§or=ne You can play around with the parameters at the top. It’s running right now so not out far enough yet.
