ORH_wxman

Tropical dewpoints from the Bahamas visiting Quebec City again.

Jim Hughes. Don’t think i ever saw him after about 2008 or 2009. Hopefully he didn’t pass and just went elsewhere.

Prob just coincidence. Up here, in addition to 2011/2014, we had a monster on 1/4/18 that whiffed down in DC/BWI. We had a pretty good one on 1/7-8/17 too...and actually one of the few good storms that hit New England in 2010 that whiffed the mid-Atlantic happened on a retro job from Jan 1-3, 2010. Tamarack up in Maine loves to curse that storm as the end of that winter up there. Hopefully we score another good one this winter.

Your pack didn’t survive the Xmas eve 2007 cutter? I think we had like 8-10” of glacier afterward. However, the early January 2008 assault was like this...we rebuilt the pack to like 20”...very high water content too since it included that glacier from Xmas and all of it got wiped out in that Jan ‘08 attack.

Lol this is pretty funny. Not a bad analogy either. The SSW should be an accession to your Fraud Five. Like an honorable mention.

Overnight runs were pretty hideous. Even the ensembles weren’t that great.

The number of grotesque cutters this year with zero high in Quebec has been quite unique. Usually there’s at least some level of resistance as they eventually cut to the west, but this year, we’ve seen a couple (and seemingly another on NYD) that have free reign to Hudson Bay and Baffin Island.

We lost power for a couple hours but thankfully got it back.

Merry Christmas! Pack getting utterly annihilated lol. Bare spots opening up now. I’m not going outside in this crap but this is the equivalent of a cheap midnight high for snow OTG

Yeah we’ll see. The post-New Years blocking could fail too, though the signal is a lot stronger than this week ever was...so there’s that going for it. But the GFS run definitely shows us how it could fail...we basically get this block 500-1000 miles south of where we originally hoped, lol.

Yeah I think we need some warm heavy rains cratering this stuff to really release it quickly.

There really is no block. Grinch storm retros to like Baffin Island and we’re left with this weak sauce ridging south of Greenland for like a week afterward....it’s really after the New Years system that the NAO block tries to build in.

That has looked almost worse every run imho. I don’t expect anything out of that but there’s still some time for a change in the general synoptic look...but it better start soon.

Is that your yard or is your yard more sheltered than that? A sheltered spot with less holes prob has a shot. My yard is full cover right now and expect it will prob survive overnight since the warm rains prob won’t really drench it until tomorrow.

Weeks 2 (1/4-1/11) and 3 look really good. Week 3 actually pops a nice +PNA in conjunction with the -NAO. The weeklies do keep the -NAO all the way into clown range (week 6) but those are hardly worth looking at.

That looks like it’s prob toast by tomorrow AM. Too many holes already in the pack on that field.

Yeah I’m thinking our pack survives overnight now...it really will release very fast once that warm rain gets into it but we’re gonna have to wait until tomorrow for the heavy rains. Weve actually dropped a few degrees since earlier...peaked at 53F and now back to 48F.

For the last couple of days the pattern looks a lot better after New Years. The blocking isn’t really present before that. There was a time where it looked like it may set up a little sooner, but the grinch storm took care of that.

Thanks man. Had to dig it out to get it going, lol. But figured why not. Xmas eve and we’re not going anywhere. Might as well enjoy it outside. The Reggae weekend vibe is fun. Too bad it has to downpour tomorrow. A couple days like this would have been totally great.

Been an utter dearth of them so far. If this season was acting more like a La Niña we’d see them for sure.

You are a very good deeper layer CAD spot (like it will be sleeting in BTV and you could still be all snow)...when it’s really shallow CAD right near the sfc you don’t do as well.

We’re taking advantage of the mild weather. Fire pit going...actually quite the festive Xmas eve with the snow around and mild temps...it almost feels like Reggae week at the ski resort in late March when you have those days near 50 but plenty of corn to make turns on and you sit by the fire pit with a beer afterward. My son built a snowman and then destroyed it 20 minutes later

30” is tough for any given one spot. For ORH, there’s 3 such storms on record. If you want to count 1888, that makes 4 (they had 32” in that storm but the official records didn’t begin until 1892 there). BOS has zero 30” storms on record. Though they have come close on a number of them. Parts of SE MA have had several (1978, 2005, 2015). Then you have NE MA where some spots have had a few...Feb ‘69, Dec ‘03 (in a narrow swath), Jan 2015 a little further west toward northern 495 belt. But you’d be hard pressed to find a single point that has more than 3 I’d imagine. Now, there’s definitely no shortage of 20”+ storms in eastern areas. Most places have double digit storms in the 20”+ range.

That’s not bad. Good anomalies in the Davis Strait there. If we’re nitpicking, I’d want it slightly more north, but I was more talking about if the blocking was most pronounced in the North Atlantic and closer toward New foundland. Thats also a D16 smoothed ensemble mean so you don’t actually see a “block” there. It just kind of hints at where it might be.

Too early to rule out a big winter impact from 1/1 threat, but it’s trending the wrong direction right now. Monster western trough carves out and bides its time while the confluence lifts out. Then it decides to lift northeast perfectly timed for a big cutter. Its possible all that timing will not work out as we get closer and perhaps it ends up more wintry but I’m not overly optimistic at the moment.