ORH_wxman

It rips for a few hours and its cold....I don't think you have to downplay the ratios too hard in the CCB part of the storm....the front side up north (esp lower elevations)? Yeah, I think you'd be a little more conservative, but once everything is collapsing SE, it gets really cold quickly. It's just a matter now if we keep the look or if this trends further north and tries to run into the Hudson Valley....or gets sheared apart on futures. Either could happen.

It's all about the southern stream phase and how far west it happens...there's competing forces here. You have the big southern stream bowling ball that wants to send this thing into Ottawa if it fully phases, however, the screaming PJ to the north is ripping in and trying to squeeze or pinch the bowling ball as it gains latitude and that acts to shove the storm east. So if the bowling ball stays unphased longer, you get a more sheared storm and further SE. You get an earlier and more fully phased solution (like today;s Euro/Ukmet), then it's going to try and hug the coast for a while before it finally gets crunched E.

That would be absolutely nightmare driving if it plays out like that...it's showing basically a flash freeze late afternoon/early evening across a chunk of the interior. Not typically what you see in October snow systems. It's a very cold airmass getting drawn in.

Southern bowling ball phases in this run. By far the biggest difference from the 00z run.

-5 to -6C at 925mb wrapping into it.

Nice little CCB over eastern SNE Friday afternoon/evening.

Euro looks like it's gonna be pretty good for some areas...esp CNE but also into SNE.

Yeah that ukie solution is a little far northwest for SNE to maximize the snowfall but it gets squeezed so quickly, that it would still give a flash over and prob 1-2" for a chunk of SNE....while CNE/NNE would get warning snows out of that. You get a compromise solution of the Ukie and some of the further SE guidance, that's when the alarm bells would go off for SNE peeps.

It's quickly collapsing SE at that point...prob changes most of SNE over to snow quickly after that frame. The detailed maps are not out yet on pivotal though so I can't see it. But even a pretty far west amped solution is going to produce some snow. We want the happy medium of amped, but not obscenely tucked west, which I'm less afraid of in this super fast pattern than I am of something hideously sheered.

The strong anti-cyclonic flow over Maine and Quebec at H85 is a good giveaway too. That is just rushing into the deepening ML center on that type of setup. Here's the next frame in case you didn't already get the idea

GGEM kind of shows what I was just discussing with Ginx and Scott. You can see the southern stream bowling ball gets more involved with the northenr stream here and by the time that happens, take a look a H85....it's over...the outcome is cemented from that point. Everything collapses SE. Thats close to what you are looking for in a snowier solution. Maybe even more wrapped up as it goes south of us, but that is the idea.

I thought rain was implied given the month....but yeah. Rain is still the most likely ptype of many.

Yeah it feels counter-intuitive at first glance to want the ULL more amped for better snow in SNE, but I think that would produce more snow ultimately than a flatter solution. Yeah, it might initially shove the precip pretty far N and NW, but as it gets squeezed, you'd see the R/S line collapse very quickly SE and probably produce a really intense area of frontogenesis over SNE before it exits.

I changed the title of the thread to make it a little clearer....I moved Ray's joke to the subtitle, lol.

Look at how cold the GFS is in the latter part of the storm. That's like -5C at 900mb.

Just like winter snow climo sans October snow.

Measurable ORH October snowfall and the subsequent winter total

Tip, I moved your post to the storm thread (that was just created)

This thing really gets the squeeze play put on it as it tries to exit stage-right....the bowling ball getting pinched by the northern shortwave matters because as this happens, it's going to want to produce some crazy frontogenesis. So we'll have to keep an eye on that if it's still looking similar as we get closer. That's why some solutions produce these really intense bands of snow for a few hours. They are ML fronto bands.

Ironically the system before 10/29/11 was also a transition rain to snow event on 10/27/11....we had about 2-3" in ORH. This looks juicier and higher ceiling though. Esp for interior elevated areas in CNE.

That airmass is legit, if the system taps into that on the backside, then it's going to snow right to the coast. It's a needle-threader for sure though....you're trying to time the shortwave so that the CCB is over the region while the high is building in. Most guidance actually shows this so there's decent agreement. It's just a precarious setup and they could lose it.

The last one got way too political. We tried it for months and it eventually got worse and worse. People couldn’t behave themselves so it stays off the wx side. Ya’ll can go discuss it on Ampol or somewhere else. I’m not a fan of censorship but this is a wx forum and we’ve always been strict about keeping politics off the wx side. The covid thread was an exception...and then it ultimately proved why we keep politics out of here.

Yeah I missed this one. But your idea reminds me of the days we did radio shows. We usually only do them for KU type threats for the mid-Atlantic but we could totally utilize zoom for some bigger New England-centric threats.

This thread is becoming too covid-centric. We got rid of the other one for a reason.

Ray try this. I think it has ukmet on there (MetOffice) https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/ There’s an “NCEP” option. Not sure if that is the CFS or not. Probably is since I’m not aware of another domestic seasonal model.