ORH_wxman

That month had two big ice storms in the interior....a snow to ice scenario. Prob sucked for the coast. I think ORH was near normal snow in Feb '71 but had a ton of ice. I think it was the 2/7 or 2/8/71 that had the big one. Not quite on the level of Dec '08 or Dec '64 in ORH but pretty big ice storm. A lot of sleet saved it from being in the class with those others.

The New Years Day '71 system actually got squashed too far south for us....it was NYC's only good storm that winter. I think parts of CT got warning snows, but up in our area it was like 3-5".

I just pulled this up....you can see the two cores of cold...one in the typical area of the upper plains, but then a secondary cold max over New England....it was due to the NAO that winter. Prob lots of would-be cutters getting rejected and getting squashed south of New England as redevelopers, so west of the Apps gets warm-sectored on some of those while it never happens over this way...and that winter was super active for storms, so this happened a lot.

'70-'71 was absolutely frigid in New England despite the volatility out west. I don't have the exact figures in front of me but ORH went something like this for departures for DJFM.....-7, -6, -1, -5. I think the main reason for that was that winter had a predominately negative NAO with a poleward Aleutian ridge edged toward the WPO side....it's a very cold pattern for Canada, and then throw in a -NAO, it's a very exceptional pattern for New England. It quickly transitioned into above average temps int he southeast US.

They are pretty closely correlated so it doesn’t matter that much which one you follow for climate purposes. For “in-season predictions” though, NSIDC area is a much better predictor of both final minimum extent and area when you are a few months out (June/July). That is why I use NSIDC area to make my minimum predictions at the end of June every year. I should mention that NSIDC area is different from other area metrics because NSIDC uses the SSMI/S satellite which gets fooled by melt ponding. So SSMI/S-derived area in June (when melt ponding tends to peak) is really a good proxy for melt ponds which is the true skilled in-season predictor of final minimum extent and area.

Oh right. I def remember Eric. I couldn’t tell that was Dave in the very back.

From left to right... Bob (BaroclinicZone formerly ETauntonMA), Pickles (StillNofPike or something, lol), Diane (#NoPoles), Steve (Ginxsnewx), Scott (CoastalWx), Will (ORH_wxma), Kevin (DamageInTolland), Ray (behind Kevin, 40/70benchmark), Don (in front of Kevin, Roosta? formerly ARL_MAwx or something), Megan (stratuslove), Garth on far right (coldmiser)....I can't make out the other two in between Garth and Megan. Someone can chime in on them if they can tell.

Reducing the bible of snowstorms to such commonplace correspondence is blasphemy.

That's quite a punch the PV is taking at the end of the 12z EPS....didn't show that on the 00z run. We'll have to see if that is a trend that sticks. Would probably mean colder wx down the line in November vs previous forecasts.

You must've gotten hammered in the 2/25/11 event....also 4/1/11.

The Oct 2002 and 2003 snows both happened on the 23rd coincidentally.

Yeah it's way out there, but there's some potential for somethign wintry around 10/30-10/31....low probability of course this time of the year, but there's some very cold ar lurking and a good high is present on most current guidance. Fwiw, the Euro OP cuts the system to our west, so anything is possible at this range.

I mean, I do have Groveland around 80" on my map, but you are closer to 90" on the map. They should be expected to get a little less than you anyway.

Sounds a little low to me. But not too far off. I'd prob put you closer to mid/high 80s that winter, or possibly even cracking 90" if you are being a weenie about every squall. As we know, if the coop isn't a very meticulous snow observer, then it could easily be on the low side even if they are still following the minimal guidelines. Also you are west of them so you were prob on the W side of the CF in some events where they weren't.

I wasn't the one conveying certainty, you were. It could be a ratter, but I was asking where you got the extreme confidence form that it would be.

Gradient was a tad south in '70-'71....I think BDL had 57" that winter so he probably had in the low to mid 60s in Tolland.

Yep, all 3 were true in 2010-2011.

54.5" according to my map.

He's probably secretly terrified of an '07-'08 where Ray gets like 100" and he has 50". So he's trying to make the entire region a rat.....misery loves company as the old saying goes. But honestly, this could be good for everyone too. I don't see anything definitive at the moment....which is normal in late October.

How do you know it't going to be below normal snowfall?

Area is more accurate if you want to know the precise value of surface that is covered with ice. Extent is better for things like shipping...if a region is covered with 40% ice concentration, you probably don't want to try going through it without an ice breaker. That region would be considered "covered in ice extent" even though there is open water mixed in. Area would give us a lower value because it's only 40% ice.

Lol....I usually wonder why I wasted the 5 minutes doing that instead of something more productive.

I barely look at the Euro weeklies....I can't remember the last time I looked at the CFS weeklies. I may have done it a couple times last winter.

Posted in the other thread that late November looked colder on the weeklies with western ridging....but it's week 6. Almost no skill. It does look like we warm up after the colder wx in the first few days of November.

Late November looked colder with western ridging on the weeklies....but I don't have to tell you that week 6 has almost no skill.