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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    HRRR and 3k NAM don’t shut you off until like 9-12z Sunday morning. Lol.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Nice WaWa 24-spot. Lol
  3. ORH_wxman
    I was just looking at the rgem soundings under the death band and it has really steep lapse rates from sfc to 925mb...it’s just not credible. That should literally be isothermal under that type of precip. If 925 was a torch then it would be more believable....and as an aside, the rgem is a little warmer at 925 than other guidance but not enough to explain all the rain. It is still getting below 0C in that level.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s causing it to close off more at H5 and that tends to slow it down a little bit.
  5. ORH_wxman
    It’s literally the only storm name I can remember for a specific storm where I go “Nemo = Feb 2013”. I couldn’t tell you any others...I think Juno may have been Jan 2015 blizzard, but I always thought naming all those was so dumb.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Well if the data goes sour for the rest of 00z, can you still change it? You got all wheel drive on that sucker or at least front wheel drive? You can always chase the band during late afternoon and early evening and then trek back to the hotel later if it looks like the best is east.
  7. ORH_wxman
    That said...it def makes for some anxious model runs when you are on the line.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Haha...I’m just bustin’...Henniker is still prob in a good spot. The elevation could help quite a bit. It’s not always bad to be right on the northwest edge of the heavy stuff on models...in reality you often end up in the ML fronto-deformation
  9. ORH_wxman
    I told him to stay near the Derry/MHT line but he didn’t listen. I tried to tell him....
  10. ORH_wxman
    THe slower solutions have been a theme all day today.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah they are really weenieish. Unless it’s premium conditions it’s usually pretty safe to take like 75% of those numbers. Still impressive of course, but a little less obscene.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Nice ORH airport jack there.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn’t worry much there on small ticks given your orographically favorable location on coastals. If I was west of the whites like over toward Littleton I would probably start sweating the ticks east more. It’s easier for them to go from like 12” to 3” than your area since they rely on the midlevels a lot more.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Looks like 18z euro tickled east. Nothing huge. It’s a little slower again too.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’d probably take the over on 1” at ORH.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Give us some good ARW posts...preferably the 03z run after you’ve finished half a bottle of scotch and all the 00z models are giving Jerry a stinger CCB worth 6-10”. Need some 2015 nostalgia.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah about 17” in the Dec 1-3 storm last year. Then that was it. Lol
  18. ORH_wxman
    Peddlers Daughter? I used to go there sometimes back in the day.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s going to take crazy dynamics....which the models show admittedly, but I always get a little nervous on similar setups where you are “waiting” for the cold.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah Reggie tickled east but it’s still a furnace at the surface. Not sure what it’s doing there.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Union Station right there.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah a lot of MAULish soundings showing up.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I'd think you'll probably at least get a couple inches there at the end. Potential is there for more, but it all depends on how fast this whole thing explodes off to our east and exactly where it tracks too...along if there is a semi-stall as it maxes out and H5 reaches its peak height falls....you may have to watch for some pretty big wind gusts there too as it goes nuts....SE areas have more potential for that.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Here's ORH on the 3km NAM at the same time....you can see the lift lines up a bit better. So they'd probably be maximizing dendrites here.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah....on the 3km NAM, you are close but just below the crosshair.....the bars on the left are omega. I marked max omega with an "x" and then you match it up with the temp profile to the right....you can see it's just below the bext SGZ, but it's still like -10C so that's gonna be pretty decent,....and you still have good lift above the max lift region. Ideally the max lift would be a touch higher, but that will still be pretty solid.
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