ORH_wxman

Convenient how the hadley cell signature of above average heights in the subtropical latitude band over the southern CONUS was nowhere to be found the first two weeks of the month when we needed it most

Steady light snow has commenced here.

Where did you get that idea?

Yep and it wasn't that far from being snow...when we need a block to hold the line just a little longer, it doesn't on the 1/16-1/17 system. Frustrating. But that's how it goes. This past couple weeks wasn't a textbook snow pattern, but it was serviceable. It was one of those rare "mild but potentially snowy" blocky patterns. Late Dec 2012 was kind of like that but we managed a couple good events (at least away from water).

This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system.

Carbon copy of January 2013 and 2015. The bitching is always worse when the pattern isn't garbage but we're still not getting the snowstorms.

Good candidate for a 5-post

You don’t enjoy the semantical debate on whether we should call it “unpredictable shortwave chaos” or “luck”?

Who guaranteed snowstorms? It should be common knowledge for someone like you that has been on the boards for 15+ years that good patterns don’t guarantee snowstorms. But we’re not going to pretend the chances are the same in a good pattern vs a garbage one either. It’s ok to talk about potential.

You aren’t being a realist. You are doing exactly what you did in 2013. You even kept pretending that the Feb ‘13 blizzard threat was going to miss until it became really obvious like 60-72 hours out. It’s possible we keep whiffing in the upcoming pattern, but it has nothing to do with what happened earlier in the month.

Just close the shades man. We’ll see you in March.

We will be longing for the days of early January 2021 once the hadley cell destroys our geopotential medium later this month.

No worries, northern hemisphere is usually good.

Hopefully they can zoom it out even more on future updates. Maybe we can simulate the view from the moon.

squiggly lines are ridges and straighter lines are the troughs....that's all.

They are directly related....NAO block holds the 50/50 low in place. I can see his point on the upstream ridging potential....it's definitely not a classic KU setup. We don't have a rockies/western ridge. This is more of a SWFE type threat running into a brick wall. Those can be very good of course....but they have a different mechanics behind them than the classic maturing coastal cyclone. Yep...as mentioned above, this is kind of a SWFE on steroids look....prob would be a cutter without that block.

EPS is a pretty strong look for 1/21-1/22...prob our best synoptic look since the Dec 17 threat. We'll see if it sticks.

It's plenty cold...in fact, prob too much cold this run.

Could easily get nothing through Vday.

When was the last time we got screwed in an overrunning pattern?

We've like 5 of them too in the past 2 weeks...I've been outside several times on those days and said to myself "if I didn't know any better, I'd think snow might be coming".

Same for ORH....1988-1989 through 1991-1992 was the only time.

Eh, you get a lot of snow in April there which is part of the seasonal climo. You could easily put up a couple 40-spots in Feb/Mar and then add another 15-20 on the margins (end of Jan plus whatever falls April and beyond)

is a b*tch

Yeah and for those who don't like the term "luck"....it was unfortunate "unpredictable shortwave chaos" in an otherwise half-decent longwave pattern.