ORH_wxman

What happens is it pushes the best WAA in the mid-levels in the WCB from CT almost due E over SE MA and out to sea while the ML magic banding goes from like N/central PA to Catskills into NW MA/S VT/SW NH....and MA is kind of left in the middle and E MA still gets decent low-level forcing precip while central MA to the CT valley gets kind of shafted....this is where scott (coastalwx) was saying we need to watch the convective blob....if that is escaping eastward less as we get closer, then we're going to see a much stronger WCB into MA.

Yeah it gets kicked by the s/w behgind it digging more. The whole precip shield is further NW though since our man s/w is deeper.

Still NW at 48...but not a big shift compared to other guidance. Kind of a typical Euro move.

It's definitely making up gorund now...more amped at 36h.

We didn't get hosed as bad in boxing day as further east and northeast in the Tip to ASH belt....we had about a foot while some of those areas had like 6-7" of sand.

The confluence is just a smidge weaker, so that might be enough to make up for the s/w dragging some on this run.

Euro is actually less amped through 18h than 06z....wouldn't that be the ultimate Euro move, to do the opposite of the other guidance.

Euro running now...definitely expect it to come NW this run, but the question is how much.

I was commenting on Taunton....the Cape would get a lot of rain on that setup. You'd still get some snow....but rain at the height for sure.

Doesn't look like 925 gets warmer than about -3C....pretty hard to rain in that setup unless you are out on the water.

It's not ideal for huge wind due to the frigid cold low levels....when you have a damming setup, it's harder for winds to mix. It should get pretty darn windy on the Cape though where they are much warmer in the low levels....abd maybe even E MA coast for a time. The interior would probably due better for wind if the high was more west in Ontario which would be less cross-isobaric flow.

I think that will be an issue just north of the mid-level death band...you'll prob have a lot of lower level dry air that makes it arctic sand wherever that happens. I don't think you'll get a massive virga storm though...you prob need to be at the very northern periphery to stay virga all storm.

You taught them well...... They were even whining about NAO blocks for a few runs even though this would be in Ottawa without it.

I fully expect a meesenger shuffle SE at the end...the question si where does this peak on the models for the NW trend. It could go further at 00z before coming back some.

He just pissed off the karma gods...now he'll be choking on exhaust while MHT gets ripped.

ALB gets destroyed on the 12z Ukie.

You'll prob still get plenty of snow, but there will be a lot of paste there I think as a chunk of the storm you'll be on the warm side of the CF....so it'll be 32F mash potatoes.

You might have to deal with another round at 00z before the messenger shuffle starts.

I'm going to troll him mercilessly if he doesn't end up in an exhaust zone.

He's gonna bitch and whine his way to a 15" storm.

Usually splitting the difference with the 10 to 1 is reasonable assuming you are on the cold side of the CF.

Lol, the CF on the RGEM is sick

This always happens to those who are kind of on the line or not very seasoned in this....you get the suicide posts based on zonked meso runs, and then a couple hours later they will all be high-fiving when the Ukie/Euro come out and look great for them.

The delegation met and decided he had to be excommunicated....