ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?
ORH_wxman replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
18z NAM southern stream dragging its heels big time vs 12z. This will either be well east of 12z or end up as solely a southern stream event this run (think more like the GFS type solutions we've seen the past day or two) -
Yeah your top storms in Jackson will be way better than N Conway. Some of those long duration firehose storms give almost grotesque snowfall totals there. Like I think the late February 2010 storm put up some ridiculous number in Randolph.
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Yeah EPS is pretty similar...slightly E which is par for the course.
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Yeah if you were making a first WAG right now, it would probably not be a terrible map. I'd prob be more cautious in SNE than anywhere, but there's a chance the interior could see something.
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Yeah I'd prob blend the two...I think that map is too low based on those ridiculous dynamics (esp interior elevations).
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Nice little west-based NAO block on the Euro after that storm....that could make things interesting for the 12/10-12/15 period.
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I'd feel pretty good for the white mountain gang over eastward into interior Maine....that swath has the most wiggle room.
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Yeah but it's been later and later on each euro run for the past 3-4 runs. At some point the trend will stop. Hopefully it goes one more tick and then stops, lol.
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Compromise incoming....Scooter steals western area's snow again.
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Saved in this thread for later laughs
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Hubbdave jackpot
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Yeah I'm not expecting this to actually verify, but it's a fun solution to look at.
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Lol, abslute destruction in interior SNE.
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Nuclear detonation by 78h
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Might get CNE too...it's getting squeezed a bit by 72h...we'll see if interior SNE gets in on something this run.
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This will probably be a really good run for NNE trying to extrapolate at 66h
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Oh yeah for sure...models have been an utter disaster on this storm. I was just saying wha would prob happen on the NAM solution if we could extrapolate (prob need to weenie tag ourselves for extrpolating the 84h NAM). Being able to wait until Fri or Sat to make a decision will be ideal.
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It would be good in N ME....in another frame it prob collapses the isotherms eastward. The atmosphere is basically imploding like that submersible vehicle in the movie The Abyss.
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Yeah I don't think anyone is actually taking this solution that seriously....all one has to do is look at the last 3-4 model runs of any piece of guidance to see how much flip-flopping is going on. I do agree with you that it could be too warm given that type of dynamic solution....I feel like the atmosphere is basically imploding over BID into Buzzards Bay and PYM....that prob collapses the S+ almost to BOS in that scenario....even a model like the NAM prob couldn't resolve that type of mico-nuke.
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Revenge of runnawayiceberg against all the E MA peeps whole have been stealing his snow for years.
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It is going to thread the needle for interior SNE this run. Prob a huge CCB flashing things to S+
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Yeah that type of NAO block would be better for the Mid-Atlantic than a 2015 pattern without the block. That's pretty stout though and way out in la-la land on an OP run....so probably not happening like that. But there have been a -NAO signal on the ensembles the last day or so. So something to watch.
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Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015.
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That's why we have always said 12/5 was a hail mary. Need everything to line up perfectly to get sig snow south of the NNE mountains with this horrendous airmass.
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There's still some non-event solutions....look at the Ukie and NAM. They are probably wrong, but can't be sure. I don't care if people start a thread though, it's close enough that we can give it its own space.
