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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM is coming in slower through 48....which is probably a good thing for a better system on 1/3-1/4
  2. ORH_wxman
  3. ORH_wxman
    That was the best H5 track we've seen on the Euro....that would prob be better for SNE (esp EASTERN AREAS!!!) than shown. I agree the crazy capture and stall is likely happening to our northeast though. I don't expect 20-30" for anyone until maybe you get up into DE ME.
  4. ORH_wxman
    It was a late phase but the whole thing was much further southeast....and t ended up creating like a 700-800 mile firehose in the mid levels coming out of the east. Had 23 inches in that one in ORH. This one if it does phase and stall would happen much further north...it wouldn’t be an easterly firehose setup. It would be a rotting CCB/deformation.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Eh maybe not. 84h 06z was pretty good. I thought it looked better than 06z leading up to that timeframe though.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Almost captured this run. Better than 06z at least.
  7. ORH_wxman
    This isn’t fast flow anyway.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Could be a nice little sleet bomb for 3 hours here. Hopefully it starts as a couple hours of snow to at least whiten everything up good.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yes. I don’t disagree with that. Even on scenarios where the ULL is redeveloping almost overhead, interior SNE will get accumulating snow. Perhaps even a decent amount. But it won’t be the favored spot for the heaviest and longest duration snows. That would be favored further northeast in that scenario. So I think that’s the difference between and advisory type event or something much bigger.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Need to see that from more guidance. A lot of guidance has the ULL trying to go almost overhead which is more of an NNE look.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance.
  12. ORH_wxman
    And the entire time the ensembles were northwest of those suppressed euro runs...not to mention the Synoptics (vortmax and ULL) argued for a track NW of those OP runs.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Never totally sure in meteorology....especially at this time range...but I haven’t seen a thing so far at 00z to make me think otherwise. I’m not worried about a whiff.
  14. ORH_wxman
    He will probably say lop off the first 20 inches because the ground is warm.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yep, my bigger worry in central MA is ptype versus a SE track until there’s some major evidence for otherwise.
  16. ORH_wxman
    ULL and vortmax track for those worrying about a SE track......
  17. ORH_wxman
    I won’t hate on Forky for the snowblower comment...I used to think the exact same way but then I bought a house that happened to have a wrap around driveway...on a curve in the road (so the snowbanks get obscene)...LOL. Just brutal shoveling that. I did it the first winter in this house including 3 storms of 12”+ (1/4/18, 3/7-8/18, 3/13/18)...after that I said “never again”.
  18. ORH_wxman
    18z EPS
  19. ORH_wxman
    Never knew about the ethanol issues but I did notice my snow blower choking a bit last storm and was wondering if something was up with the motor. Ill have to try it from now on. There’s actually a gas station in town that sells ethanol-free gasoline.
  20. ORH_wxman
    The WCB on this one has looked kind of sickly on most runs. Not seeing that clean thump look. I think 6+ is going to have to be where CCB actions gets involved (not counting the upslope spots).
  21. ORH_wxman
    18z euro is weak sauce way southeast.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Wow what a weenie run of the weeklies. 2nd half of January is all teed up on that look.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Many of the members must be breaking off a piece of the PV like the OP. I noticed the heights down in Ontario and our region look lower than previously. That’s obviously a good thing....even a little bit of fresh airmass enhancement goes a long ways when you have a block like that. A little more antecedent air can give a lot more wiggle room. Hopefully we see that trend stay on future runs.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah plenty of ant-cyclonic curve on that
  25. ORH_wxman
    EPS looks a bit NW of the OP run.
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