ORH_wxman

Yep, there's a lot of events that are not coastals that will hit our area and maybe not V NT or NH/ ME....things like clippers that track S of LI or even overrunning events that struggle to get warning snows north of central VT/NH. Also the occasional IVT that dumps a few inches. The Killington number definitely looks inflated unless maybe they were measuring near the 4k summit and perhaps it's only mildly inflated. But then it wouldn't be apples to apples comparison to other ski resorts since you shouldn't measure at the summit.

I like the 12/17 look the most (I've actually liked this period for days now...I think I was posting about 12/16-12/19 a few times)....EPS were pretty bullish on that one last night. But yeah, can't rule out the follow up wave on 12/15 yet.

Yes, last night it backed off some which was kind of surprising honestly....though 06z euro trended a little flatter again. We'll see if we can get one more push today otherwise I think it's like a 36-42F rain down here. Maybe 33F in the N ORH hills.

Yeah, the only complication is advecting in the colder air first before the storm starts....we're actually pretty mild on Friday before the storm. It could almost be the type of system where it gets colder as the event unfolds and the CAD is actively pressing southwest. My hope is that we see the arctic high press further on future runs, so that we're already in the cold airmass before the storm even arrives.

1040 arctic high is no joke either....at least it's better than tracking a straight cutter.

EPS came in flatter than previous runs....we'll see if we can push that arctic high south even more in the next couple days.

You might get decent snow this weekend too. One thing that will tak a while getting used to is not to fear modeled cutters as much....they often turn into what we're seeing on the Euro. It doesn't make a difference for MD, but in NE (esp NNE) it can go from 50F rainer to snowstorm in a couple cycles.

OR an obscene slug of 3" of qpf like Dec '08.

Nov 1921 repeat next Tuesday?

Euro is coming in pretty flat so far

I hope....lol....I still think we're prob screwed down here for this weekend, but NNE may end up pretty wintry on this one. But we may have a couple legit threats behind this one. That blocking lingers up in the arctic, so I won't be surprised to see a general trend more favorable during that period.

We'll see what the Euro does at 12z....but I'm somewhat on the more suppressed train at the moment where the sfc high builds down. I'd expect the GFS to be the last model to see it. 12z Ukie is building the high in out ahead of the system

I fully expect NNE to be locked into the cold at the surface in this one now....the only question iswhether the cold is deep enough so that it is more snow versus more sleet/ZR. Maybe the trend will reverse, but we've seen this movie many times. It will keep trending colder before it does the classic SWFE bump back north inside of 48 or 60 hours.

That weekend deal is coming in flatter and flatter each run....the arctic does kind of support stuff trending colder with that...lot of blocking up there right now, so wouldn't be surprised to see further PV lobe pushes south. Below is the 06z EPS at 96 hours. I marked the ridges/blocks in the arctic/subarctic regions that will be important and then the PV lobe that may impact any potential for colder solutions.....we want to force that a bit further south. It has trended steadily south in the past 4 or 5 runs.

Megan and I stayed at the evergreen inn a couple times before we had kids when we were doing “budget” Sunday River trips. That place is hilarious. They haven’t changed anything inside since they built the place around 1970. The decor is straight out of that era. Also, when we pulled up, there was always like milk and beer in the snow outside staying cold, lol. Always tons of snow mobiles chained up to the trees out back since the trails have access right to the inn. When I chatted with the owner, he told me how it’s mostly snow mobilers but that they do get some skiers like us too that make the 25-30 min trip to SR or Mt Abram.

Meh. I want to also, but it’s a heavy lift to keep us cold enough this weekend. We’ll have more chances behind it.

Yes it’s possible. But gonna need to see some trends tonight and tomorrow. We’ve seen the trend of the angle of approach come in flatter over the past 24-36h but it’s still not enough. Need a bigger jump.

For a MA hill east of the Berkshires, it has some good vertical. Like almost 600 feet? Its kind of surprising that it couldn’t stay open given the lack of areas within an hour of Boston. I wonder how it would do if it reopened today with some decent infrastructure. I’m guessing it would be viable. We wont find out though. I think it’s like designated wilderness land or something now which would probably make it really hard to reopen a ski area.

Can’t really tell this far out. It’s a general N/S gradient. I think it had the dividing line between normal and above normal temps really close to your area for a couple weeks. That should mean chances there anyway if it panned out like that.

Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern for late December and first half of January. Low heights in NW Canada into AK but the core of them stay east of the Death Star region so Canada is pretty cold and it oozes into the northern tier.

There was a pretty localized event in February 2015 in Boston I recall. I think it was maybe feb 11th or 12th. There was like an IVT with a streamer coming in off Boston Harbor. I rode the train into work that day...back then my office was on the seaport pretty close to Logan. There was sun shining in back bay and Fenway area, by the time I got to south station is was snowing steadily but pretty light. Prob like 3 mile vis. By the time I got to the seaport east of south station there was these perfect LES dendrites falling with like 1 mile vis. I think we ended up with 2 or 2.5” in about 4 hours there while even just north at Logan had about 1.5 and then back west around Fenway they had just a dusting. It was so weird. I think parts just south of where I was near Hull had at least 3”+ of pure 30 to 1 blower powder.

That clipper would have some real legs if we didn't have this offshore storm passing us tonight/early tomorrow. Kind of funny, that storm would have probably hit us if it weren't for Satruday's system, and now it's going to cause the clipper potential to be diminished. Wave-spacing 101. Still, if that vortmax is potent enough, we could see some decent snow showers.

Wow nice. Watatic still has a lot of very skiable trails visible on it. It's amazing how long they have lasted considering it hasn't been open in over 30 years.

Here is the look by day 8 on the EPS....even though the OP wasn't really interested in producing anything exciting, this ensemble look shows potential. You still have the block N of AK and a lot of cold loading into S Canada, so any disturbance coming out of the middle of the country should be watched....this is why I was thinking somewhere in that Dec 16-19 or Dec 15-20 range could be worthy of a threat. It seems there is a window of synoptic favorability there.

Fwiw, and it's not very much, but we could see a lot of snow showers around Wednesday afternoon/evening. That's a decent little shortwave that dives in from the lakes. Prob plenty of upslope posts from powderfreak, alex and phin which should get the juices flowing by the SNE posters. But even down here, there could be some snow showers. There's a little bit of a windexy sounding with TTs approaching 50, but we're lacking LL moisture to really get excited about much else other than flurries with some embedded snow showers mixed in....up in the orographic spots of NNE, it's a different story.