ORH_wxman

Yep. Not a single run from them I’ve seen that wanted to bring that sucker northwest. Ukie too.

RGEM still not biting on Monday.

If I was at PSU in UNV and over to IPT I’d be feeling pretty good.

12z Reggie wasn’t on board either. Kind of skeptical of that threat but who knows. Sometimes a sneaky band on northern edge could produce a couple inches.

Yeah the gradient was insane. Just the perfect storm of conditions to create it. That was the storm where I first learned that the CRV was not as good for snow as Worcester. I had always assumed they were just as good or even better because they were further west. But when I found out they hardly had anything in that storm, I started paying attention more to the totals out there going forward and it surprised me how often they had less. I wasn’t acutely aware yet of how relative terrain worked.

Only acceptable at a first order site now. Spotter/coop is your max depth during the storm unless it’s longer than 24h then you can clear. I think that’s what it is now...I feel like it changes a lot, lol.

It was actually a good defense by him...he said something like “that measurement in Wilmington is old school. The spotters have recently been advised to not clear every 6 hours but the top airport sites still do. The measurement is just like you’d see at an airport.” Im paraphrasing there but he basically was talking about how it was kind of arbitrary that spotter and coop measurements all of the sudden shouldn’t clear every 6 hours. Now advised just to take peak depth on the snowboard in a 24 hour period. You can clear after 24h.

Pete B defended Ray’s measurement on the air in that one, lol.

EPS at 120-126. That’s a better look than the OP

That and just look at the trough orientation to our west. This is pretty deep and going negative more than any of our whiffs. It’s certainly possible but I’d bet more on a N bump than a S one on that look.

No reason to panic at all because of a single run that is like 75 miles from destroying SNE at day 5. At the end of the day, I’m still pretty sure we’re going to be glad we have a potent block. Hard for me to ignore how this looks to our west.

When I saw this map at 96h, I was thinking it could be really zonked.

No you’re thinking of feb 25-26, 2010. Feb 10, 2010 was the epic bust where all the schools and workplaces shut down the night before and we got like 2-3” of slop. Different setup though. It was a deep cutoff low.

After the 850 line was already passing PHL at 108. Color me a bit skeptical of the shortwave giving out that quickly.

Thing was so zonked at 96-102. Then it just dies, lol.

Lol I might ha e spoken too soon. Gets totally shoved east.

Euro def won’t be the Ukie

Ukie is somewhat suppressed and not that potent.

The Monday storm is a good example of the difference between a nuanced thread-the-needle setup and what is being modeled for Wednesday night/Thursday. You have excellent model agreement 5 days out on the latter threat while you have models all over the map from a 4-6” event to nothing at all on a 54 hour forecast for Monday.

That’s a very good sounding. Classic cross-hair sig. You’d overcome a borderline boundary layer pretty quickly on Monday if that happened.

Not surprising since Reggie wasn’t biting either. Usually if RGEM doesn’t bite, then the GGEM won’t.

There’s definitely a limit. The blocking and associated 50/50 low is felt very strongly. But that main shortwave is going negative fairly far west and it gains some latitude out there too. That’s why I’ve been saying I’d want to be north of Philly...they might be ok there but we’ve seen some runs like the 00z euro which cause ptype issues we’ll into NJ.

This thing’s outta here Thursday afternoon. Maybe some flurries still linger Thursday evening in SE MA but that’s it. It’s a nuke but t doesn’t hang around. For 36 hours like Jan 2015.

It can still come further north before turning ENE. Just look at the upper flow around 96 hours. It isn’t exactly suppression city showing up over NNE...you get that vort a little stronger maybe when it assimilates onshore and you could def see a further north solution. It won’t become a cutter or rip inland over ORH because of the block, but there’s some room.