ORH_wxman

Yeah he gets in on it this run. Northern edge of the heavy stuff anyway.

We needed to see 96h for the qpf Queens. Lol. That was stronger than 12z there aloft. Prob gets pretty good snows over border into NH/S VT that run.

This is a perfect H5 setup for all of SNE pretty much.

Runnaway doing naked snow angels at 84-90h. That’s destruction out in W CT

18z euro looks a hair NW of 12z

Correct. It’s not actually in position in the middle of the country yet. It is still offshore. A chunk of it comes onshore tonight and then most of the rest will be on shore by 12z run tomorrow.

Vortmax is coming in pretty far west. Even compared to previous storms that got crunched for BOS like Dec 20-21, 2009 or Jan 2016. Often the models underestimate latent heat release to the east of them which is why ticks north on huge systems are somewhat common. They can be offset by huge blocks but a lot of the confluence on these past storms (with further east vort maxes) was significantly more than the current threat we’re seeing. So add it up and I’d favor more bumps north than the other way around. Most of the spread on ensembles is to the north too which is suggesting that there’s more room for small initialization errors being corrected to produce more northerly results. Forecasting a big probability game. It’s maybe something like 50% it trends north, 30% chance it roughly stays the same, and 20% it trends south. You can’t ignore the 20%. 1 out of 5 happens plenty of times. But you will pay more attention to the 50%.

PDI was back when the LFM was the cream of the crop. Lol

Was def north through like 72-78 and then shot east and the end result almost the same up here. The difference is noticeable back in like PA where the good stuff gets further north.

There’s a bit of a streak up there north of Maine trying to hold tough so the gap might be closing. Still looks like it will be north of 12z though.

Vort looks more potent and confluence lifting north a bit faster through 48h on 18z GFS. I’d be surprised if this doesn’t tick north but we’ll see.

I might trust the 84h nam more than the icon. But yeah, that was pretty amped up.

Not on that solution for you. Bent back WF at H7 is already near BOS.

Too bad we didn’t have another panel of the NAM. Classic 84h NAM

I remember the euro barfing in that event. Way too suppressed until like 24h out. Rare loss for it inside of 72h up north. GFS wasn’t exactly great either. It was a win for mesos though in that 48h time range. Can’t remember but maybe Ukie was pretty zonked too? But all the models basically whiffed NYC (or have them nuisance snows) when we were at the time range we are now for the current threat.

He’s anticipating a massive capture and retrograde.

I dunno like two other models trended north at 12z. GFS even bumped slightly north even though it is still the furthest south model. Euro trended slightly south. I’m not seeing any sort of golden nugget here by the GFS.

Yeah it was similar but definitely a little bit squeezed compared to 00z. I get that everyone is dying for a huge system, but people need to remember this is like 90-96 hours out still. We’re not even using the NAM/RGEM yet...it feels like this should be about 48 hours out given how long we’ve been tracking it but it still has a long ways to go. Never any guarantees but I still like the idea of bumping a bit north given the deep shortwave associated with this.

EPS not as crazy as 06z (no surprise given the OP was a little south as well)

You are like 5 miles away from getting a death band that run. Lol.

Yes it did. Just wasn’t enough for us. 4 days out it was giving NYC cirrus clouds.

Sure and if it zonks north 100 miles you might be worrying about ptype issues.

He’s just being a massive weenie.

You were pretty close to huge northern weenie band...might have been more like pike region to Rt 2 that run. Negligible at this time range. You’re gonna go insane micro-analyzing each run at 96 hours.

That has a pretty sick banding sig for BOS to ORH on Thursday morning.