ORH_wxman

NAM needs to get the flaps to 40 and the landing gear locked....coming in really hot.

You won't jackpot if that happens....doubt you end up with 8" of sand though.

The banding sig is all over the place...some runs its over you and others its just NW of you and some of the more suppressed runs like 12z euro yesterday its south of you. There's no way to know that you will be getting some big screwgie at this time lead.

What’s weird is that is way better at H5 than 18z.

06z euro looks similar to 00z euro. Maybe even a hair NW aloft but it’s kind of pulled an 18z for the Qpf queens again.

That Ukie upper air looks more robust than 12z. Sfc looked a bit more tucked back west.

I think you’ll get a few hours of ML goodies there.

Man that was a zonked GGEM run

GFS will come on board maybe tomorrow.

She’s hanging on longer this time but starting to lose her east at 54h. But it’s an improvement for sure.

Let’s try this again on GFS. Clearly more downstream ridging through 36.

Blizzard warnings still exist I think. They just no longer issue blizzard watches. The blizzard watch was super rare to begin with. I do remember one a couple days before the Dec 19-20, 1995 storm.

Yeah it was probably good for MA there was a little more confluence this run becausenot helped offset the stronger s/w.

Or maybe lemon meringue...but gotta watch out for the blow off.

Still looking more robust than 18z. There’s significantly more downstream ridging this run through 36h. The confluence in northern Nova Scotia is holding about the same though so we’ll see what happens when this stronger wave interacts with it.

It’s good to get new blood in the forum. But there’s a learning curve as well. Everyone was a newbie weenie at some point in their forum life.

Seems like mostly newbies...they’ll get the hang of it eventually.

NAM is definitely more amped down south through 24h, but I’m not gonna pretend to know what the QPF will do.

Lol I forgot some dates. Esp if they were misses it’s easier. I’ll say the one time vividly recall a convective blob robbing he conveyor a bit was Feb 28-Mar 1, 2005. The forecast was for 8-12 and a massive blob of convection formed over LI and tracked over far SE Ma and the cape and Plymouth got like 13” in 3 hours out of it. But it was at the expense of the interior which was originally predicted to jackpot. We still did ok but we got like 6-7” instead of the bigger numbers. We tracked that one back on WWBB and the late messenger was all over that blob and predicting a huge SE MA positive bust. The upper air in that one though was far weaker with the vort and s/w and rounding a much deeper ULL in the lakes. So I don’t think it’s a good analog. The upper forcing was definitely weaker overall allowing convection to disrupt it easier.

I’m not really buying the blob idea. Maybe if a whole bunch of mesos start showing a weak occluded mess, then I’ll buy it more. I’m trying to think of a good analog for an H5 look like this that didn’t hit us hard. I can’t come up with one...doesn’t mean they don’t exist though but I haven’t found it.

They look NW if anything 12z on top, 18z bottom

Yeah it’s possible. If it is, then the non-hydrostatic models should start showing this even more than regular global models ala euro. Still a bit out of their wheelhouse but the nonhydrostatics have been pretty far NW.

If it’s legit then we should see the non-hydrostatic models start doing it even more than the hydrostatics as we get closer. So those will be the ones to watch. Deep convection like that will be handled worse by the hydrostatic models.

I will take my chances with this look

Look at how much bigger the convective blob out there than 12z. Much stronger. Seems like it disrupted the WCB maybe at the last second. I was happy with that trend otherwise. H5 deeper and better kink in isoheights as it passes over us.