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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    The S/w was initially stronger this run but the confluence was a little stronger too, so we ended up with opposing forces with the confluence getting the net victory with a slight nudge south. Tonight is when the main shortwave comes on shore out west so we’ll see if that drastically alters the solutions.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Very similar to 00z. Maybe just a split hair south.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks a bit less amped than 00z through 78
  4. ORH_wxman
    Ukie finally more north
  5. ORH_wxman
    NAM upper air was significantly more amplified at the same hour so I doubt it would have moved the same.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah 00z tonight or 06z once it goes out far enough.
  7. ORH_wxman
    NAM doing NAM things at 84h. Damn that is zonked.
  8. ORH_wxman
    It’s def NW of 00z. Esp at 102 hours near the BM.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Maybe an inch or two on the NAM for Monday in most of SNE. Possibly a little higher down near south coast if they can accumulate efficiently. I’m still pretty skeptical about that threat for much more than a C-1” but not impossible to pick up more if some pretty nice fronto can get going for 3-4 hours.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Uncertainty on GEFS disproportionately to the north side. Id be surprised if it didn’t come north.
  11. ORH_wxman
    102h on EPS
  12. ORH_wxman
    06z EPS are maybe a shade more amped than 00z through 96h
  13. ORH_wxman
    Euro was an outlier last storm, it is not this time. The GFS suite is now the outlier (except the new parallel which is quite amped).
  14. ORH_wxman
    06z only goes out to 90 hours. But it looks like 00z at that point, maybe a hair slower as Chris mentioned many posts back. The 06z EPS is coming now out and we’ll be able to see the storm as those go out to 144.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Pony express that sucker right to BOX.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Amazing how different the GFS and GEFS are from the other guidance. Don’t want to totally toss guidance out at 4-4.5 days out, but it’s hard to think they are right.
  17. ORH_wxman
    NAO on cpc calf is like -1 for the event. It’s not your massive -3 SD block from 2010 or 2011 but it’s definitely a -NAO. The 50/50 low is exceptionally strong so that sort of make the block “act” stronger than it really is on a temporary basis. It’s not creating a traffic jam slowing the flow down to a crawl though. The 50/50 low is still moving and the storm steadily moves out instead of rotting for 36 hours.
  18. ORH_wxman
    00z icon is crazy amped. Getting big banding into dendrite land. Ukie running late..it was pretty flat at 12z and was hoping to see if it trended north at all at 00z, but I’m not waiting up for it any longer. Euro can wait 4+ days out.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Seemed like the mean position of the trough was getting kicked east a lot faster on the 00z run.
  20. ORH_wxman
    There is the required GFS choke job if we’re going to get a big storm. It seems to puke on itself in almost every one. Usually a lot closer to the event than this though.
  21. ORH_wxman
    That is an UGLY GFS suite tonight. But we’ll see if it’s supported or not by other guidance. GGEM so far says no....84h NAM (if you want to count that) didn’t support it either.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Ray smoking cirrus this run. Lol This thing got kicked east so fast compared to the prior runs.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I don’t think Monday makes a big difference. Regardless, this is a philly special this run.
  24. ORH_wxman
    This run won’t be as amped as 18z. Can already tell by 78h.
  25. ORH_wxman
    My guess is it probably doesn’t beat climo...or if it does, just barely maybe due to some minor skill a month out in longwave patterns.
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