ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah the trough looks putrid at 120h. Looks worse than all the other guidance....hopefully it's just uncle being uncle with it's usual crazy swings....last night it was raining out to 495....now its giving James a jackpot.
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That's a whiff.
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BTW, the GFS shows you how it's done with the -NAO when the PAC starts going to crap....keeps the threats coming one after the other. That's hopefully how it goes instead of the Grinch showing up on time. Hopefully we can beat his ass back into his cave with the NAO block.
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I had about 7" of sand from 12/21/09 but not too far SE had like 15-16".
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Good solution for south coast/SE MA that run. But like I said, that vort is pretty far west, so beware of that on future runs.
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Actually making a pretty strong push at 126...that's a pretty far west vort, so I think at the end of the day, we're gonna be glad there is a block there....regardless of this specific run's outcome.
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Yeah, it's gonna get crushed south of New England I think this run. That is really strong.
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Man, that longwave look is right out of the Kocin book though:
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Man, that is ridiculous in SE Canada on the 12z GFS....hope it doesn't get crushed. Southern stream is more potent this run too, so maybe opposing forces there.
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Nah, Tip's hadley cell will eat us before then.
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For this far out, they are almost identical or all intents and purposes.
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Good 00z suite. Nothing fundamentally changed on the longwave scale.
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You’re up...there’s some ducks on the pond too. Knock ‘em in.
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That was still a great storm at least here. Had about 13 inches and then some sleet/freezing drizzle. The WCB in that was pretty awesome. Obviously it would have been nice to get the 87 inches that fell in Stowe, but I’d sign on the dotted like for another one right now if offered.
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We’ve done threads at 5 days out. Especially if there is strong support for the system. 6+ is kind of unofficially frowned upon.
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Yeah if it actually happened and ORH got like a foot, they’d be pretty high on the historical list through Dec 17. Might only trail 1992 if that happened. Of course, 2019 was at like 25” by that point and that went to shit. Lol.
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18z EPS goes out to 144 but it looks solid. Transfer occurring off VA/NC
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Kind of a bummer that NNE won’t get much snow out of this (CAD region of W Maine might see a little) ...I was thinking that they probably would once it started trending but then it kind of stalled and trended a slight bit back NW. At least the sfc wedge is happening so very little snowpack loss up there. 4 days ago it was a 55F cutter.
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The grinch storm is a given. Only question is whether the low tracks through Milwaukee or whether it tracks through Buffalo.
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Thought it would be better based on upper air at 120-132. Either way, very strong setup. These wiggles will happen.
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GFS will come in good again. Prob not HECS this time but that look is just classic. Nice to have longwave features in place because it provides more wiggle room.
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This is a miller B setup, so you'd sell big snows for MD, even with the -NAO. Doesn't mean it can't happen (see 2/9/10), but it takes some pretty anomalous features to slam that far south with a Miller B and whiff your NH area.
