ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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The synoptics of the 12z Euro run I think would provide pretty high end potential. Any time you get that firehose look and then a stall as it rejuvenates with that big CCB/deformation....you have to be aware of it. A place like ORH gets firehosed for 15-18 hours on that run and then also gets deformed for another 6-8....that's a high end look. Now that look may not verify....obviously....we're still 4.5-5 days out from the meat of it.
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Looks like a decent setup for Tolland to be choking on exhaust from the Union-ORH band.
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Fishing boats coming back in with 12" of snow plastered to their sides and scorch marks from lightning strikes.
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Yeah you'll have a shot at a couple inches tomorrow....but latest guidance has pushed the potential a little eastward, so we'll see. There will still probably be some OES on the Cape for a few hours as the IVT rotates down even if you miss the really intense band directly with the IVT.
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Bummer...prob 2-3F cooler there and you couldve grabbed a couple inches.
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Prob a Foxoborough to MQE jack this run....east ORH hills prob also given the synoptics there.
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CT does fine, but they don't get the brunt...the low rejuvenates further east and hammers E MA up into E NH/S ME
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Wow, that thing stalls for E MA and up into ME.
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That is a really impressive firehose on the Euro.
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12z Euro will be east of 00z
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Most volatile medium range model by far. It likes to have 300-400 mile swings.
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Ukie is a Cape scraper....whiff for most of the forum.
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New rap loves you over the next few hours....prob 2-3" or so it's trying to spit out there on the upper cape.
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Been getting nice fatties here for like an hour now. Nice thick coating on the previously cleared surfaces....hoping to scrub an inch out of this stuff if we can get it to blossom up a little more in the next hour or two.
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Boxing day?
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Flakes increased all of the sudden in the last 15 min...previously were small most of the morning....nice steady snow here accumulating on previously cleared roads/walkways
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Someone might pick up a couple inches in these
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Trying to blossom over E MA and SE NH. A lot of guidance tries to drop and inch or two this morning over that area
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The map Ray used from NWS wasn’t the full event. Looked like it was through 10pm on 1/26.
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TT of 66 and 400 joules of sfc CAPE.
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Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40?
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Look at the TTs.....LOL. Frequent and dangerous lightning to go with 6-10" per hour?
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Yes....definitely a chance of a surprise there. I'd think they are in good shape to get at least an inch or two...but hopefully they exceed that.
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That’s always been a threat for you on Cape Ann. Hopefully it pans out and someone gets a 6 spot or something. I love following those little meso-bombs when they happen. I’d prob keep expectations low there but hope for a surprise.
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Yes....that is empirically true. A number of reasons....cryospheric maturation up north, SSTs much colder in Feb than Dec, etc.
