ORH_wxman

NAM looks a shade SE of 18z so far through 24h

That’s like a perfect track for a lot of SNE. Hopefully there isn’t too much exhaust and the CCB and WCB are more linked together than some guidance shows.

Yeah the cutoff line was near ginxy.

I think one of my favorite Harvey broadcasts was the day before the January 2015 blizzard. He just totally weenie’d out on the air and said something like “These are the types of storms we live for as meteorologists.” You could hear the excitement in his voice. That’s when I was thinking “he could totally do this another ten years. He still has the passion”

Yeah that was his first coup...he’d only been on the job less than a year and then he was the boldest for the ‘78 blizzard forecast....he was right and then the rest is history. I hardly ever missed a forecast from him in the winter when I was in elementary school in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Off hour QPF Queen run again. So weird how the off hours on euro have done this every time in this storm. It actually looks like the CCB is a bit more organized this run though for the second half of the storm regardless of the QPF maps.

18z euro looks a tick more amped than 12z through 24h

Jerry RPM fetish 21z run came SE. pretty darn good run for most of SNE and CNE

I'm hoping the convection gets wrapped into the WCB in this and we get an obscene few hours on the front end.

Only a matter of time until the GFS scores the coup from yesterday!

May even have to watch 12/24-12/25.....nothing great on guidance yet and we've seen some grinch storms, but if you look at the longwave pattern, this is pretty classic for a correction to more wintry.....look at the features. As Tip would say, "the correction vector" may point to colder here if that look stays.

Yeah I saw one run early yesterday that did that....I wasn't checking it regularly yet though until this morning. Interesting that it was doing that the whole time but slowly moving it up.

18z RPM is tickling SE a bit too.

18z NAM might be the first NAM run in a while to not be more amped than the one before it....looks a shade shallower with the shortwave and downstream ridging through 15h. The confluence might be a hair weaker though so we'll see if it makes up ground.

The coup is complete.....

It's fine to speculate about where it would be...as long it is understood that it is speculation OR you are playing devil's advocate on a particular run. I think some of your posts came off as high certainty. I wouldn't say it is high certainty you end up in a subby zone. Some of your subsequent posts were more reasonable on the issue....it is certainly possible but there are also a number of ways you can avoid it.

Yeah, basically just get slammed with the WCB and then the lower level forcing behind it. I don't think it's going to come that far NW though....but yeah, that would be yet another way to get rid of the precip minima

What happens is it pushes the best WAA in the mid-levels in the WCB from CT almost due E over SE MA and out to sea while the ML magic banding goes from like N/central PA to Catskills into NW MA/S VT/SW NH....and MA is kind of left in the middle and E MA still gets decent low-level forcing precip while central MA to the CT valley gets kind of shafted....this is where scott (coastalwx) was saying we need to watch the convective blob....if that is escaping eastward less as we get closer, then we're going to see a much stronger WCB into MA.

Yeah it gets kicked by the s/w behgind it digging more. The whole precip shield is further NW though since our man s/w is deeper.

Still NW at 48...but not a big shift compared to other guidance. Kind of a typical Euro move.

It's definitely making up gorund now...more amped at 36h.

We didn't get hosed as bad in boxing day as further east and northeast in the Tip to ASH belt....we had about a foot while some of those areas had like 6-7" of sand.

The confluence is just a smidge weaker, so that might be enough to make up for the s/w dragging some on this run.

Euro is actually less amped through 18h than 06z....wouldn't that be the ultimate Euro move, to do the opposite of the other guidance.