ORH_wxman

The torch was much shorter...even down here it’s like maybe 8-10 hours of 50+ and maybe 12-14 of 40+...way more manageable than basically twice those numbers on the euro and earlier GFS runs. Problem is we need other guidance to cave that direction.

Early guidance really speeding up the system. Icon has front through by 12z Xmas morning and GFS is now about 06z Xmas morning.

Cant rule out NYD itself either. Kind of a signal then too.

Maybe 12/29-30. Been on and off guidance for a few days now. EPS were kind of meh last night after liking it previously but other guidance more bullish.

Yeah you need the northern stream to move way out ahead to get a frontal system to develop far enough east for us. That’s why we wanted the energy to bury southwest or at least lag big time. We haven’t gotten that. The better hope now is to keep the entire thing faster (ala keep trending like 06 GFS) which swings the whole thing through in like 12-18 hours. I suppose we can’t rule out a sudden change back to trying to bury the energy, but I’m skeptical given we couldn’t get that to occur during last night’s runs.

Hope for the trend of speeding this up like GFS and it would survive. Otherwise it’s toast. Too bad we couldn’t bury the energy in the SW. It got pretty close but no cigar.

On the flip side, the 06z GFS prob has its “best” run yet. Some weak CAD out ahead of it and the front is through by Xmas morning. Prob really only hideous for 12-15 hours. Maybe less in the CAD areas. Wouldn’t be enough to wipe out the pack in most areas.

Can’t seem to quite bury the energy in the southwest. 00z runs were no help. Euro might have its worst solution yet where the front doesn’t come through until Xmas night. We get like 40 hours of tropical dews starting Xmas eve.

18z Euro was trying again to bury the energy early on but just couldn’t quite get it to cut off. It’s still a possibility but admittedly we’re going to need to start seeing a few more models do it tonight and tomorrow at 12z or I think we’re screwed.

Lol. I’m guessing you prob avg 10” more per season than them.

Yeah I do agree there is at least some background support for a whiff on the monster phase. It is nice that a few models are showing it or even hinting at that potential change in the outlook. (Already noted the NAM and Ukie earlier this morning) Even the EPS are dragging the southern stream a little more this run vs 00z.

Yeah it nearly buried it this run but didn’t quite do it and it still managed a phase. I’m hoping it actually gets trapped in the southwest eventually on the next few runs.

Worst case scenario in Euro for grinch storm. 60F and downpours on Xmas. Slow moving too so that would be a total pack wipeout. Hopefully it’s wrong.

It’s going to prove it this time!!

GFS is definitely a shorter torch. Still pretty bad but at least the front is already through by 12z Xmas. Ggem is horrific. Ukie is actually getting closer to pretty interesting. It’s pretty positively tilted for longer before going negative and then develops a wave along the front...another few miles and its snow Xmas morning for a lot of New England ...prob already good enough for snow in M VT that run

Damn...NAM trying to eliminate the grinch....buries the energy SW and northern stream about to run ahead of it

Shift the Ukie east like 100 miles and we’re in business.

You can believe the statistical anomaly exists and still think it is random. The two are not mutually exclusive. You would expect statistical anomalies in a random distribution of n = 100 or 150. I’m open to the possibility that it is not random and there is a legit meteorological explanation, but I haven’t seen it yet.

Yes, especially in December and January. Cutters are definitely reduced in frequency in February. There is definitely a historical spike around 12/23-12/25 in temps but I am not at all convinced it is anything other than statistical anomaly. If the distribution of cutters was truly random in December, you would still expect several outliers based on 100+ years of data. It would probably take over 1000 years to weed them out. I haven’t seen an actual meteorological explanation of why we would expect the 12/23-12/25 anomaly to continue.

We’re actually kind of due for a snow melting grinch if you think about it. We haven’t had a true grinch since 2013? I guess you could count like 80F on xmas eve/Xmas in 2015 but it wasn’t melting anything. Same with the torching cutter a few days before Xmas 2018...wasn’t melting anything for most people.

I think NOAA hired the ecmwf.int graphics guys to design their radar.

18z gfs actually had a little bit of CAD in front of the cutter as it kind of built the high northward toward Nova Scotia out ahead of the cutter. That wouldn’t be an all out disaster. Still hoping for much better though.

We can always root for the JMA

Colder dewpoints in the northern Bahamas than here.

I hate it on Xmas day....I'll deal with a quick FROPA on Xmas eve....but give me the refrozen glacier for Xmas day. EPS must still have a lot of faster members as the front is through by 12z in the mean...hopefully that means subsequent runs come in weaker/faster.