ORH_wxman

Might be a little tucked for the coast to be optimal there, but details at this time range are kind of worthless. The general synoptic setup is really good.

Euro has a much stronger block this run around Hudson Bay...so I suspect a south trend on this run.

At least it looks like most won't have bare ground for the arctic shot on Friday...might struggle to get out of single digits high terrain.

Congrats on the jackpot this run.

Euro looks pretty nice for that initial "thump" Tuesday afternoon/evening. It has been ramping it up each run.

The key was the shortwave maintained it's integrity longer than guidance was showing at the time. It's not uncommon for guidance to squash a shortwave too quickly, even in the face of a block.

East slope of ORH hills can do well in this type of setup where the BL flow is easterly. Could provide a little bit of extra low level lift.

Well for a warning I think it's 6" in less than 24 hours or 8" for any amount of duration. So the duration only matters if it's greater than 6 but less than 8....my guess is we aren't getting amounts quite that high anyway. But can't totally rule them out.

RGEM is actually a pretty decent thump during tomorrow evening for a good chunk of SNE...that initial WAA band is stronger on that model than some other guidance. One of the reasons it is spitting out near-warning snowfall.

NAM snows for like 40 hours....lol. I'd take it at this point even if it takes 40 hours to get 3 or 4 inches.

7 days out....never set expectations that early. This could still be congrats SLK or a whiff. It does look at the moment though.

06z euro juiced it up a little from 00z.

Para GFS not really biting in the big IVT/norlun aspect for 1/28 that the OP GFS is selling. More like just very light stuff lingering. It likes the pike region though for 1/26 into early 1/27.

Congrats Ray on the norlun for the GFS.

This event isn’t supposed to impress for rates. It’s a long duration event. It might snow for 30 hours and you have 3-4” to show for it. Maybe even longer. So the radar isn’t required to look amazing to reach 3 or 4 inches if you are snowing for that long of a duration. That said, still probably best to keep low expectations until we’re another 24 hours closer since this type of system isn’t super stable on model guidance. But I do see potential for some upside.

The snow growth looks good. But obviously that could still change.

RGEM looked like more than that for many. Like solid advisory for a large chunk of SNE.

Yeah that’s the best NAM run yet for here. Lol.

Anyways. That is the feb threat. Prob should post in the other thread.

It doesn’t even look bad. Not sure why he’s whining. That will prob hit us.

It’s essentially the same as the WINDEX checklist except a few tweaks (as you know, the instability parameters will be similar)

It might go into the 28th ala Tip’s post. Depends on the orientation of the ocean storm and upper air but I could see that playing out...kind of the “clear air mode radar elements moving in from the E or NE”.

New thread for Jan 26-27 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54423-jan-26-27-light-snows/

Starting this thread for the Jan 26-27 overrunning snows. Favored is southwest but some of the model guidance today is showing some better potential for further north and also prolonging the snows with an inverted trough. GFS was the most weenie-ish so I’ll post it, first but other guidance is suggesting reasonable chance for advisory snows somewhere in SNE....you’ll notice the heavier band in central NY that points toward SNE and it’s on almost all the guidance...we’ll need to watch if that can maintain longer as we get closer to the event...that is the key for getting more than an inch or two