ORH_wxman
-
Posts
90,911 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by ORH_wxman
-
GGEM is pretty decent too. Maintains that shortwave integrity longer and gets the steadier snows into SNE.
-
GFS looking pretty nice actually. Even better than 06z
-
RGEM has maintained the shortwave integrity better than the NAM which is why it’s liking the precip further northeast and more robust amounts where it falls. ICON does this to an even more extreme...which we can probably toss since it’s getting a few inches well into NNE.
-
Very possible. I’m not committing northeast of HFD yet. I’d be fairly optimistic for at least an inch or two in SW CT though with a chance for advisory if things go well.
-
12z NAM was hideous. This event has been flip flopping almost every run though. SW CT is best but still can’t rule out some snows getting further northeast.
-
Quite unlikely considering that is the most favorable piece of guidance and the block isn’t going anywhere. Euro is significantly southeast of that.
-
Feel free to check out until the spring. I’m not forcing anyone to invest. But I’m not going to pretend threats don’t exist either just because past ones have failed.
-
One thing you want to see on a longer range threat is strong cross-guidance ensemble support. Heres the EPS, GFS, and GEPS in that order: For those who can’t handle the emotional roller coaster of failed storms, I’d suggest not checking back in until the 2nd half of this week. But this is at least a pretty strong guidance signal for a D8-9 threat.
-
Euro came in better at 06z again. Actually gets measurable snow for most of SNE now. Granted it’s mostly under an inch except maybe a little more around Luke’s ‘hood in SW CT, but I’d still watch this one because if that shortwave maintains just a little more curl (and it’s been trending that way), then a nice little surprise band of solid advisory is certainly plausible.
-
2/1 looks really good on the ensembles. Only 8 days away! In all seriousness, the failed 1/29 system phasing offshore with the PV lobe is actually causing the 2/1 system to come in more favorable on last night’s guidance.
-
Yeah there’s been some historic turds in January. I remember a couple of those (1992 and 1989) during a horrific 4 year stretch. We've been lucky not to have anything that bad recently though 2007 comes close.
-
Nah. ORH is at 3.6” and here are the top 10 least snowiest Trace 1955 0.8” 1980 0.9” 1911 1.1” 1913 1.8” 1969 2.0” 1962 2.5” 1967 2.7” 1992 2.8” 1989 3.8” 1934
-
Looked worse than 12z. 1/29 has so many problems with it. I’m not ready to say “ain’t happening James” just yet given it’s 5+ days out, but we’re almost there. Need to see this trend solidly tonight or tomorrow 12z imho.
-
It was better for 1/26 but it’s been so cruddy that it needs more improvement than that.
-
Big bump north on GFS. Need to get Euro on board.
-
-
18z JV models north again for 1/26. The icon is actually kind of hilarious. Gets advisory snows into powderfreak land. Warning snows for pike region.
-
EPS improved for 1/29. Not just over 06z but also over 00z (which has been a little better than 06z)
-
Not optimistic there or for Ginxy. Too far east. It’s possible that advisory snows happen that far northeast but we’d need to see something more like the Ukie or one of the JV models.
-
Your ceiling is higher than that. It’s a fine like between shredded flurries and perhaps a nice solid advisory band there.
-
1/29 does look better this run. Still a whiff but it improved a lot.
-
Watch it in CT. Esp Luke’s hood.
-
Euro coming in better for 1/26. Still needs work but that was a nice trend.
-
Gonna be hard to get that type of trend with this blocking in place. Best chance is to keep that PV lobe in central Canada close enough that it may try and inject a little energy into it or at least be far enough west that it bumps up the heights downstream in Quebec.
-
Actually had a decent little weenie band for the pike region.
