ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Just ripping fatties again in another band. This has had great snow growth for anything over about 20 dbz. It goes to crud flakes below that but when you get these moderate to heavy bands it just stacks up with great dendrites. Gotta be around 3” now.
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Yeah that was impressive for the south shore late tomorrow night/early Thursday.
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Man absolutely choking fatties in this
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Didn’t realize BOS was 28F. N wind ftw there. I just assumed they were going to be like 31-32F.
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About 2” now eyeballing This is an awesome band rolling through
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Getting nuked right now. About 1.5” so far
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Getting some decent backfill in CT now
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Getting some decent back building now in ORH county and just west along the pike toward CEF.
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You can def see the snow shield kind of slow down in eastern MA/RI....hopefully that helps with some backbuilding later. ALmost all short term guidance shows it happening across CT this evening. Esp 5-7pm.
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18z NAM sounding near PVC on Cape on Friday.....Dawn Awakening,
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New 18z HRRR agrees with it filling in south and weakening north....but yeah, just looking at radar right now it looks like Ray's area would do better than my backyard.
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Looks pretty nice actually on radar...hopefully we see some filling in where the front of the dryslot is
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Nice job HFD KHFD 261853Z 17004KT 1/4SM +SN VV012 M02/M05 A2999 RMK AO2 SNB20 SLP155 P0001 T10221050
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I dunno, that's a pretty crushing look for ORH to Ray's area on GFS...they basically stay on the NW side of the stalled bent back mid-level WF for like 18 straight hours. That's why it's like 1.5-2 inches of QPF in 24 hours. Doesn't matter at this range obviousl on details....but you'd want to hit that if you were there....all the way back to western CT.
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2/19/93 redux?
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It's giving you really good ratios on that map....you get like 4 tenths of QPF through 42 hours....but that map is spitting out 15 to 1 to give you 6" of snow.
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I think we'll want that 2/1-2/2 event to really take its time moving out....that will help shove the next one south.
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I think much of SNE will have a break tomorrow during the day...there may be some periodic flurries or spits of snow/snizzle, but we may have a 12-18 hour gap of very little before it tries to blossom again tomorrow night.
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Deep snow pack seems to help more for things like coastal fronts. If you have an arctic airmass over deep pack, a CF usually has a much harder time penetrating inland....that low level molasses just provides more resistance with a deep pack. But yeah, it's not gonna help us if there is a deep H5 low ripping a low into BUF.
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At least you are in the best possible spot save downeast ME if anything happens Thursday night....can't get much further east than Rockport. edit: Actually reminds me of an event in the mid/late 1990s...I can't remember if it was 1996 or 1997 since I didn't experience the event. But Rockport/Gloucester got clipped with an IVT/OES piece and got like 6-7" while 10 miles west had nada.
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We need to make a Tshirt for you now that you have been at this for 25 years. We'll call it a 25th anniversary gift. "Ray's Kryptonite: Harping on ORH always being far enough in one direction since December 1996"
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I'd watch it there too...you might be too far southwest, but it's close on some models.
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Yeah it's like the lowest 2-3k feet of the atmosphere it's struggling with. But that can often be overplayed....esp near the coast. If the lowest levels are more like N aroudn Cape Ann, then that's where something could go nuts. Obviously digging that ULL further southwest will help the tug the sfc IVT further west too....so they are all connected.
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You may be a little on the warm side for the first IVT tomorrow night with 34-35F slop....but you also might get a 32-33F paster. We'll have to see. The 2nd IVT Thursday night is in the arctic airmass and that is where there could be a surprise on Cape Ann. That could be a true Norlun type setup if it broke right.
