ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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NAM would def be good for a lot of SNE...might be a little thin in NW MA extrapolating, but for most of the region, that is a nice look.
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Yeah I think that is too longitude dependent. I'd tilt that whole thing to to the right at least enough to put the great lakes BN.
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Nothing can top the grinch storm of 2020....I've onyl seen something like that maybe once or twice. The Jan 19-20, 1996 storm and maybe Jan 30-31, 2013.
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For most of the country or just NE? Looks pretty cold in the northern tier to me. We could go either way here.
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Still hoping the GFS suite has the right idea on the cutter....lot of CAD sig showing up there. Euro was pretty ugly though.
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Yes, each passing cycle makes the OP runs more useful. Ensembles will still be more skilled but not by a lot. .
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Both storms had a similar axis of heaviest snow....'15 might have been just a smidge west of Mar '18....the latter basically had the huge totals stop at Windham county up to ORH. But yeah, this one looks less prolific than either storm at the moment. Could still change, but that elongated upper low look definitely puts a cap on this....we need it to fatten up again.
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No it's not....in terms of placement of best deform axis. (3/13/18)
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Our W CT peeps need that further west. That is a huge look for like BOS/ORH down to your hood if we extrapolate another frame or two. Plenty of time for 100 mile shifts though.
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06z Euro looks like it’s doing the wide right turn and then hooking north as well. Prob would destroy E MA/RI/SE CT next frame or two.
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There’s definitely a legit chance that you see the storm go to town for a while off to the southwest in VA and then swing east and then back north where it rejuvenates and hit eastern SNE up into Maine leaving a relative min in between. That said, still pretty early to be worrying about that type of nuance.
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Prob rolls through there between 3-5pm or so....they may have a bit of OES on either side of it, but the main intense band prob won't last more than a couple hours.
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3km still hits the outer Cape decently tomorrow.
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Yep....it's like how we were getting firehosed in Dec '92 when the low was sitting over Delaware. Or even Mar '13....the low was sitting over the Andrea Gail way off to our ESE while we were getting smoked.
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The synoptics of the 12z Euro run I think would provide pretty high end potential. Any time you get that firehose look and then a stall as it rejuvenates with that big CCB/deformation....you have to be aware of it. A place like ORH gets firehosed for 15-18 hours on that run and then also gets deformed for another 6-8....that's a high end look. Now that look may not verify....obviously....we're still 4.5-5 days out from the meat of it.
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Looks like a decent setup for Tolland to be choking on exhaust from the Union-ORH band.
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Fishing boats coming back in with 12" of snow plastered to their sides and scorch marks from lightning strikes.
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Yeah you'll have a shot at a couple inches tomorrow....but latest guidance has pushed the potential a little eastward, so we'll see. There will still probably be some OES on the Cape for a few hours as the IVT rotates down even if you miss the really intense band directly with the IVT.
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Bummer...prob 2-3F cooler there and you couldve grabbed a couple inches.
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Prob a Foxoborough to MQE jack this run....east ORH hills prob also given the synoptics there.
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CT does fine, but they don't get the brunt...the low rejuvenates further east and hammers E MA up into E NH/S ME
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Wow, that thing stalls for E MA and up into ME.
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That is a really impressive firehose on the Euro.
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12z Euro will be east of 00z
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Most volatile medium range model by far. It likes to have 300-400 mile swings.
