ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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NARCAN maps will probably be pretty grouchy at the 33F sfc temps in the 495 belt. But in this situation I wouldn’t worry about it with 925 temps of like -2.
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Yeah I’ll take this run and sign on the dotted line for the 495 belt. That’s actually pretty close in BOS too. Wonder if Jerry would get pasted with like a foot while Logan was getting a waterlogged 5”.
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Ray to ORH jack this run for New England. Big hit for NJ/E PA with the ULL being tucked a little further west.
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Man, that thing gets stretched out to the northeast...conveyor gets a little disjointed late in the game. Definitely issues inside of 128 this run.
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Def west of 06z
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Yes we have. It’s called “Tblizz bitches his way to a foot”. Received mixed reviews from critics. The sequel was decent. “The Reverse Psychology Diaries from KTAN”
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Too early. Some guidance like NAM and GFS tickled back SE a bit. 06z euro did too so it’s hard to accept the Canadian solutions right now. Major difference in how the upper air is treated.
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The Canadian suite treats the upper low very different from other guidance in that it stalls it well southwest and rapidly deepens it on that spot. So it just dumps over PA/MD.
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Hopefully something like 12z NAM verifies. That was much better for a larger area and still cold enough for most SE areas to see snow.
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GFS looks a bit SE of 06z.
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RGEM tries to get a thin layer around 725mb above freezing, LOL. I was wondering why Ptype algorthms were showing like ORH mixing despite 850 temps of -7C and 925 temps colder than -3C. Even sfc was 30-31F. Trying to give a SWFE sounding despite H7 flow out of the SE.
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Lol what is the RGEM doing. So different aloft. Cuts off h5 and massively deepens it well Southwest.
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Yeah it does seem that way. Jan ‘15 and Jan ‘11 both did. Jan ‘05 did it on ‘roids and I got like 7” in 2 hours. Lol. If we can get trend the h5 low staying south and a little less elongated, that will increase the chances of some goodies at the end. But if all I get is a 12 hour ‘roided-up WCB, I cant complain.
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We get dryslotted after about 66 hours until the ML goods try and rotate back through at the very end of the run. I can’t complain about a dryslot though in this one if you are getting 12 hours of firehose-enhanced WCB.
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Yeah SNE is destroyed by the firehose that is enhancing the already-good WCB north of the bent back ML warm front...and it’s slow going through SNE. Like a solid 10-12 hours rather than the usual 4-7h thump. The ML goodies end up eventually stopping and pivoting up in CNE/NNE. They actually try to rotate back through SNE at the end of the run.
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Wow that’s an absolute annihilation on the NAM for a good chunk of SNE.
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NAM definitely east through 48h compared to 06z.
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Yeah they used to be decent for synoptic winter events when they consisted of RSM and ETA members. But now they are mostly convective models.
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Almost looks like a firehose north of a bent-back ML warm front. The fetch from the east on the north side of it is really impressive.
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You may struggle in the valley compared to further east or in the Berks. You should still get a solid storm though.
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EPS lost the cutter Hopefully it doesn’t come back.
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I like where I am too for getting absolutely firehosed for about 8-10 hours.
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Yeah that’s prob a good way to put it. If the ULL looked more like the RGEM it would be a longer duration event. But it’s a bit of an outlier in that regard. Most of the guidance elongates this thing aloft and keeps it moving steadily even if not super fast.
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Deformation on that 06z run is back over MSS and SLK. This is definitely more like a 12-15 hour storm in terms of the real accumulating stuff.
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Yeah we want the euro solution. This would be fine...it’s actually a pretty sweet look for about 8-10 hours...but prob like 8-12” in a big front end thump and then dryslotted with shredded snow showers for another 12-18 hours.
