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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Is Kevin getting a burst of snow? Looks like that precip is snow on CC. Or he’s right near the line.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Pattern looks amazing on the EPS going forward regardless of any potential grinch on Xmas. I’m pretty confident we will cash in at some point on that look.
  3. ORH_wxman
  4. ORH_wxman
    When he does the swan dive off the building.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Ray just pulled a Bill Murray in Groundhog Day.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Bit of an IVT as it exits with moisture trapped below 800mb....so yeah, might be some snizzle or even some light snow for a time early Sunday morning. It's only like -5C...so questionable how much snow there is, but prob a lot of salt nuclei in that given it's in the low levels and -5C is prob cold enough with lots of salt nuclei.
  7. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM looked slightly less offensive with the warm nose aloft down here in the early going...so it actually gives us an inch or two versus very little on the 12z run. However, the 3km wasn't interested in throwing us that bone.
  8. ORH_wxman
  9. ORH_wxman
    It’s good for holding in a semi-permanent 50/50 feature. You can see where that low height anomaly is now just E of new Foundland. It becomes pretty hostile for cutters.
  10. ORH_wxman
    The NAO block is in a better spot than a few days ago. That west-based look with a -PNA is really good for us usually.
  11. ORH_wxman
    The primary is in Lake Superior at 216 hours....lol. But the block forces a secondary to develop off NJ.
  12. ORH_wxman
    This entire pattern is going to be difficult on model guidance because of the -PNA firehose running into the NAO block....at any time, one of the fragments of energy ejected from the western trough could become a player, but the model guidance can't really tell which one it is this far out. That's not even counting how model guidance handles the block itself...nuances in the orientation of the block can have large sensible wx effects.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Euro has a weak impulse in the flow that tries to give a little light snow overnight Xmas eve into Xmas morning, but it's just a shade dry. More like snow showers. But again, those things are not going to be modeled well, so worth watching if it can turn into something bigger.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Definitely lost the to GFS in the 96-120 timeframe....so a bad showing by the Euro. Confidence not restored after its win last week.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it was better for everyone N of rt 2....it wasn't much difference here, but it trimmed the 1-2" amounts down in CT/RI
  16. ORH_wxman
    The WAA has a harder time the further east you get....this isn't like a usual coastal.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Euroi ticked warmer again....pretty big juice-up in QPF though...so that's gonna be better for those who can stay snow long enough to take advantage.
  18. ORH_wxman
    And here;s another....one that didn;t work
  19. ORH_wxman
    Here's a couple similar patterns:
  20. ORH_wxman
    Canadian tries to redevelop a clipper on Xmas even to our south....that would prob be enough for white Xmas for most of us. These types of embedded shortwaves in the fast flow are going to be hard for models to resolve at this lead time. The pattern definitely gets even better after Xmas, but I wouldn't sleep on the 12/24-12/25 potential yet.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm more interested in the train of shortwaves between 12/24-12/27. I'm hoping one of the early ones can deliver for Xmas, but I'll take any of them delivering.
  22. ORH_wxman
    We're gonna have Tblizz listening to White Snake before too long while he watches the models whiff us one after the other.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the higher end SWFEs usually have a nice high north of Maine that is holding in an already advected-in cold antecedent airmass. In this one, the cold is kind of leaking in at the same time the event tries to start and you don't quite have that really good ML fronto that causes the storm to come in like a wall. There is definitely some good confluence, but it is not oriented great for the classic warning event SWFE and in this case, prob not even advisory until you are north of Rt 2.
  24. ORH_wxman
    GFS has the PV lobe really strong. If you got a compromise with the Euro here, you might grab a nice event on Xmas.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm selling advisory snow here....I'd prob go C-2" for pike region. I'd consider 2" a pretty solid win for this event.
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