ORH_wxman

Yeah just a small improvement from 06z....not much help.

Normally I'd toss the NAM if it was the only thing zonked like that, but there is other guidance supporting it. GEFS were quite robust and plenty of 06z EPS members were on board even if the OP wasn't quite there yet.

You can tell 12z NAM will be significantly more amped than 06z just looking out west already at 36 hours.

Yes they have, but still not great...our northern arctic vortmax has come onshore in AK from the Chukchi sea and the "southern stream" (which is really the PJ piece) is still south of the eastern Aleutians, but that's a better area than it was before. However, there's many more variables in here that may not be figured out until closer....the blocking to the north of the PV is one....the handling of the PV itself is another with all those spokes of energy rotating around it and stretching it in various directions. A lot of that stuff is in relatively poor data regions and will stay like that. In my experience, I've found that models tend to handle winter threats a lot worse when we're in this sort of fast flow Nina pattern but with blocking up north causing a meridional flow.

One of these ARW control runs that come out on ewall will probably give me 18" in the next few cycles.

Phew, now that we've seen the 87 hour SREFs, we can lock this storm in.

You could literally blow this stuff off the car with a hair dryer set on low.

Yeah that was a good improvement on 06z eps. This one has some life still.

Definite improvement on 06z euro. Still a whiff but way closer now. Actually not a total whiff, it does get an inch or two of snow into the cape.

Currently snowing with a couple tenths new.

Need a clear positive trend at 12z I think. We’re getting a bit short on time but can still bring it back if we trend it more right away. 06z NAM was closer too...brought a little light snow to far southeast areas on Sunday.

Still has the 2/9 system

Yes. But I’d put it fairly low right now. Too much CAD to have a true Rainer into all of NNE. Everything wound need to go right.

Next week is kind of a cluster on model guidance. I expect some decent shifts from run to run in how that PV and all the energy rotating around it is handled.

D6 looks like an overrunning snow/ice type threat....could morph into a Miller B, but it's certainly further north than previous threats.....makes sense as the block is further north by that point.

Goes nuts with that little vortmax out ahead of the main one....weird. Might produce some snow showers on Saturday night.

Megan said commuting down to Walpole was pretty crazy. They had like 6-7" of slop down there while it was buried here....she said most of the difference had already happened once in Medfield. That's like 6 miles the way the crow flies from here, lol. That area really got the shaft...usually Walpole/Foxoborough cleans up while a little to their east is suffering, but this time they didn't quite get on the right side of the gradient. They did ok, but way less than 10 miles NW of them.

Scooter is the dude throwing the computer while Bob is the dude asleep at the desk who has checked out on winter

Drive up to your office. I don't think Milford had quite as much as me, but still a foot or maybe a little more.

Scooter and NorEasterMass128 are in full 1/3/03 or 12/92 meltdown mode. They need a 2/7/03 to bring them back from the dead like that season.

Yeah its kind of a weak and northwest this run which basically just gives some warm sector showers to SNE and a little bit of snow to NNE, but the potential is there for sure for something more meaningful.

Ukie gone too...flat and out to sea.

ORH up to 55.4" now...sneaky solid total for 2/2. Them picking up nearly 10 inches in the 12/5 storm was a big boost that most other areas didn't see.

I think it would be hard to get a true cutter...there is a pretty stout Davis Strait/Baffin Island block. Can still happen if everything lines up perfectly but I'd def hedge colder. Even if it's icy/sleety overrunning mess.

2/9 seems like a much better threat for something...it will have a lot more room, but that also means potential for messier solutions as well. Both GGEM/GFS show precip in here. The antecedent airmass is pretty cold though so at leas that provides a little more wiggle room.