ORH_wxman

Yeah sell that...its def cold enough in SE MA, but I'm not sure I buy ACK over to George's bank getting smoked like that yet.

It did last storm for sure.

Nice bump on V16...that's prob high end avisory or low end warning snows for the SE folks in the PYM to UUU belt.

Better than 06z GFS but not at NAM levels....the GFS gets SE MA/RI pretty good though on this run.

GFS looks like it is going to be west of 06z just looking at 36 hours out west for 2/7.

Lol....you are technically correct. It didn't help us at 12z. Didn't hurt us either though....at least not yet.

So that means it trended well SE since it was a big hit at 06z. At least the other guidance was trending NW....even if incrementally.

It definitely is "The Ukie of shorter term models". It loves to have some weird solutions and isn't afraid to make big swings. I do like it inside of about 24-36 hours though....it actually did a half-decent job identifying that Maine/NH resurgence in the snow in the last event. It was a little bonkers otu at 48 hours, but more reasonable inside of 30h. But I'm definitely not too worried about what it is doing at 78 or 84 hours.

Yeah just a small improvement from 06z....not much help.

Normally I'd toss the NAM if it was the only thing zonked like that, but there is other guidance supporting it. GEFS were quite robust and plenty of 06z EPS members were on board even if the OP wasn't quite there yet.

You can tell 12z NAM will be significantly more amped than 06z just looking out west already at 36 hours.

Yes they have, but still not great...our northern arctic vortmax has come onshore in AK from the Chukchi sea and the "southern stream" (which is really the PJ piece) is still south of the eastern Aleutians, but that's a better area than it was before. However, there's many more variables in here that may not be figured out until closer....the blocking to the north of the PV is one....the handling of the PV itself is another with all those spokes of energy rotating around it and stretching it in various directions. A lot of that stuff is in relatively poor data regions and will stay like that. In my experience, I've found that models tend to handle winter threats a lot worse when we're in this sort of fast flow Nina pattern but with blocking up north causing a meridional flow.

One of these ARW control runs that come out on ewall will probably give me 18" in the next few cycles.

Phew, now that we've seen the 87 hour SREFs, we can lock this storm in.

You could literally blow this stuff off the car with a hair dryer set on low.

Yeah that was a good improvement on 06z eps. This one has some life still.

Definite improvement on 06z euro. Still a whiff but way closer now. Actually not a total whiff, it does get an inch or two of snow into the cape.

Currently snowing with a couple tenths new.

Need a clear positive trend at 12z I think. We’re getting a bit short on time but can still bring it back if we trend it more right away. 06z NAM was closer too...brought a little light snow to far southeast areas on Sunday.

Still has the 2/9 system

Yes. But I’d put it fairly low right now. Too much CAD to have a true Rainer into all of NNE. Everything wound need to go right.

Next week is kind of a cluster on model guidance. I expect some decent shifts from run to run in how that PV and all the energy rotating around it is handled.

D6 looks like an overrunning snow/ice type threat....could morph into a Miller B, but it's certainly further north than previous threats.....makes sense as the block is further north by that point.

Goes nuts with that little vortmax out ahead of the main one....weird. Might produce some snow showers on Saturday night.

Megan said commuting down to Walpole was pretty crazy. They had like 6-7" of slop down there while it was buried here....she said most of the difference had already happened once in Medfield. That's like 6 miles the way the crow flies from here, lol. That area really got the shaft...usually Walpole/Foxoborough cleans up while a little to their east is suffering, but this time they didn't quite get on the right side of the gradient. They did ok, but way less than 10 miles NW of them.