ORH_wxman

ORH is prob better than CON by a couple ticks, but I think where dendrite is does better than ORH by a few ticks and his area up there is also better for retention. That is that start of big time CAD land. ORH is a good spot for retention overall but not as good as getting up north of CON. ORH is sort of where the CAD starts in earnest in a lot of messier events, but it hits a new tier when you get north of CON and then it goes into nuclear bunker mode once into W ME. If you like monster 18"+ synoptic storms, then ORH is one of the best spots due to the elevation and proximity to the ocean. There is really no terrain that screws with it during ocean storms....easterly flow or northerly or northeasterly flow are all going to work there.

The flow is really fast and there is a stout NAO block up in Davis Strait/Baffin island area....there's not much room to come west. I'm considering it fortunate if it is far enough NW to hit SNE.

Always possible. Though this isn't really a "stealing the snow" setup for ORH, it is more likely the type of setup that ORH will be just far enough southeast to get into the really good stuff and then Ray will complain how they are always "just far enough in one direction" to get the goods.

Nice move on the GFS. Big fronto-sig over SE MA/RI that run. Someone is going to get a good band in this.

Reggie is a pretty big hit. Widespread warning amounts for SNE except far NW MA.

Have a solid coating new but the band is already moving out. That'll probabyl do it...mostly disorganized stuff behind it and BL warming too throughout midday.

Actually ripping pretty good here now too. Band looks thin though, so prob won't last long.

It's basically a 6-8 hour storm. We're not counting a few stray flurries that might pass by at 10pm hours after the real snow stops.

Light snow falling here. Kind of a short term bust on temps....most guidance had it into the mid 30s by now, but we're 29F.

And then there's the RPM which rips the storm up through ginxy's BY and into E MA.

Yeah there probably would be a lot of 6 and 7" amounts with a stripe of like 9-12 for whoever gets into the weenie front band (and it definitely looks like there would be one on that setup)

SNE crushed.

Dryslot's wife spiked his coffee this morning

Little bit of phasing with northern stream at 33h right now...don't think they'll stay connected, but that helps pump heights up downstream.

Yeah they are almost the inverse-NOGAPS rule from years ago....you'd look at the NOGAPS back then and if it was pretty far NW, you knew that was kind of a red flag.

Looks to me like the 12z NAM is coming back north this run through 24 hours.

Not really....'nor is the RPM at this time range.

SREFs look like the RPM.

06z euro looked about the same as 00z. Was hoping for another bump NW there but it is still getting 1-2” across a lot of SNE with more over far SE areas.

06z GFS tickled NW. interesting set of trends in the last 12 hours. Some models going SE and others coming NW. Threat definitely still alive but need to narrow these goalposts.

Yep. Slightly less amped through 54h.

EPS a tick SE as well though there’s definitely still plenty of spread NW. We’re onto 00z.

Could be convection too. Convection is at a minimum around 12z and closer to maximum (or a little below maximum) at 00z. But that doesn’t explain all of it either. Esp in winter when there is less of it overall.

Yeah slight step back, still scraped the cape that run. OBviously need to reverse that trend at 00z. I actually thought really early on it looked better with the western trough axis a little west, but the southern vort ended up weaker and the northern stream pressed slightly more to offset that later on.

Euro coming in less amped this run. 12z was a scraper, so this might whiff.