ORH_wxman

Oh that was Jan 3rd and 4th....you kept saying New Years Day. 4-8" wasn't forecasted ever in that one though. We were hoping it might turn into that type of storm a couple days out, but it never got better.

Also, that first week of February is pretty interesting to me still. You have more of an east based -NAO and some ridging out west. 2/1 looks kind of cutter-ish, but after that one looks more favorable....2/1 is still pretty close to the west-based blocking breaking down though, so it could end up flatter too.

Which storm are you referring to?

Man, that is some sweet fronto band over S tier of NY....congrats BGM again. Just need to maintain that slightly longer to the east.

Ray advocating for hoping for a 4" crusty SWFE in February.....never thought I'd see the day.

Sure, nobody argued they weren't? But your chances are way higher with downstream blocking than without which is why I'd never choose the non-block scenario unless it was prefaced with a 2015 PNA ridge....which isn't happening anyway during a February mod La Nina.

Downstream blocking slows down the flow which is what you want for a bigger event. I'd definitely roll the dice with that rather than hope we get well-timed highs in a SE ridge fast-flow pattern.

Ha, if a garbage pattern would produce 4 SWFEs....that's an important assumption.

Here's a couple radar images....first is when the badn is just backing in....and 2nd is after it had been stationary for a few hours and starting to slink back E a bit....but you can tell that the canal area got destroyed

I def want to keep the NAO negative this February....it's likely total garbage without it. I'll take my chances rolling the dice with it....shortening wavelengths might even help phase part of a PV lobe or something.

Bigger issue on 1/29 is the block up north...it tries to retrograde a PV lobe enough to prevent it from amplifying. It actually looks pretty good out west on several different runs before it approaches.

That one looked like ka-ka last night after trending better during the day. Hopefully it comes back.

I think you are looking pretty good down there...and esp over to SW CT. Getting more confident they see something shovel-able. I'd like to see one more solid bump north for the pike region. We still have plenty of time and as we've seen so far with the model guidance, only small shifts in the orientation of PV lobes and blocking up north has outsized effects on the sensible wx impact down here.

06z EPS bumped back north too.

Yeah but it’s kind of expected in this setup. Most models have been flopping around. Dealing with the block and those two pv lobes which directly affect how far north this storm can go. These are minor shifts up north but they tend to matter a lot in the sensible wx for this one.

06z Euro came back north some. Only goes out to 90h but better than 00z at that point.

Euro regressed too. Ukie was indeed a harbinger. Euro actually did the same thing as the 12z run with that lobe (after the 18z run had gotten better). Unfortunately, unlike the 12z run, the EPS looked a touch worse too. So we will need to see that trend reverse.

Yep. Ukie first model tonight to go south. Hopefully not foreshadowing the Euro.

GGEM def improved. Prob warning snows for SW CT and advisory snows elsewhere in SNE.

Chris (Ocean State wx) always talks about their struggles in NH upslope region in the forecast grids. They’ll have flurries for Pittsburg NH and that dude’s cam will be S+ with 5 inches already down. LOL. Definitely an interesting forecasting spot on the north side of the mountains.

I have found SR to really shine late in the season. Because it holds snow so well, all their steeps are slathered in snow well into March and early April. The only one that struggles a little bit is Quantum Leap because it’s one of the few steep trails that face west (it’s on the back side of north peak) and it also has no snow making on it. SR because of the mountain design can spread their crowds out really well too...so even a crowded day isn’t terrible when all the lifts are turning. But yeah, going into the trees off Oz and Aurora peaks can be really fun when they get a nice synoptic dump. Or if you really like steep bumps, do shockwave on whitecap peak after a nice snowfall.

The Loaf and Saddleback also have really good elevation. Saddleback base elevation is like 2100 feet, LOL. That’s like Kmart levels except you are up in Rangeley where nothing melts even at lake level, nevermind 2100 feet. Sugarloaf is like 1500 and even further northeast into The boondocks. Sunday River is actually kind of unique in how low their base elevation is. I think base of whitecap is like 850ish to 900.

I’m glad it’s finally starting to pay off in the snow department. The upslope you report there is even a little better than I had envisioned. Seems like you are almost on par with Alex for upslope...just a smidge less maybe. You cleaned up on that last synoptic storm too with the east flow.

Yeah SR doesn’t average a ton but it holds the snow amazingly due to its shape and the fact that it’s already deep into CAD territory. It’s kind of like a giant horseshoe that faces northeast. The low elevation snow depths there are usually unmatched anywhere else at similar latitude in New England. I routinely have seen 40-50” depths at like 600-800 feet there in late winter.

The bread and butter you were eating earlier this month said “Made in MD: expiration 2/10/10”. You got some NNE bread and butter finally.