ORH_wxman

Yeah the upside of this is probably about what that storm was. Obviously everything would have to go right but that one had the sfc low almost into CLE before redeveloping. I’d be happy with a solid advisory event at this point just so we don’t have to go another two weeks with bare ground.

18z gfs gets an inch or two into SNE now. Hopefully the 00z suite gets another bump north.

Looks like ORH got a nice little burst to whiten things. Not seeing any real good "clusters" though....lack of more organized lift as mentioned upthread is what is keeping this from being a higher end WINDEX.

3/01 wasn't pasty either until maybe you got onto the beaches....really only Dec '92 or April '97 was in terms of a HECS. I was more listing storms that had ptype issues on the coast that hammered inland. A HECS paste job is a rare unicorn.

12/1-3/19, 3/7/18, and 2/13/14 were a few in the last 5-6 winters that were tough along the coast that were 12"+ inland.

Nobody remembers the Jan 1969s or the 4 weeks of nothing after blizzard of '78 or the putrid stretch between the December 1992 storm and the next one in mid-Jan 1993.....those get forgotten easily when you cash in at some point. They only get remembered if the winter never recovers.

Yeah you are probably in the least favorable spot in all of SNE for 1/26....further NE is bad in that setup. But trend it north another tick and it s a moot point.

EPS really likes 1/31. Pretty luke warm on 1/29. For 1/26 they are a touch south of the OP run, but keeping us in the game.

It was there last night too. It was just a lot weaker and up south of LI.

No matter how many times we remind him, he still thinks most of us are in the mid-atlantic.

There's def a lot of stuff popping up....we'll see if we can get a more consolidated line of squalls as we get toward 4-5pm.

Yes...loosen that confluence just a touch more and I think you'd see the WCB slam right into SNE as it runs into the block....this run sort of shunts the WCB south of us as everything runs into a brick wall and we get mostly the currier and ives ML goodies that are weakening after a moderate WAA burst.

Definitely good trends today....wouldn't take much to get that into warning amounts. Obviously being 5.5-6 days out along with that block means this can easily go back south too.

3-4" would feel like a foot at this point.

Thing runs into a total brick wall. Pretty nice ML snows though for SNE....advisory type event.

Raining in CLE at 132 hours....how about that? Might be glad we have the block after all.

Yeah hard to imagine this whiffing....there's a lot more downstream ridging for it to work with this run.

Euro def more zonked this run for sure....lets see if it's enough this run to get the goods into New England.

Great area though if you like golf. They stay open later and open earlier. Used to drive me nuts back when I played all the time....I'd be waiting for courses to open in ORH and they had been open for 3 or 4 weeks already down there. Prob why those schools tend to do better in tournament golf back when I played in high school. I played for St. John's Shrewsbury and we had a good team, but we always had trouble for those SE MA and Cape schools. We always annihilated the northern schools.

It's definitely a risk with this block....but sometimes these ejecting SWFE type systems will trend north as we get closer....even when there's some confluence. We'll just have to wait and see because the subtleties of the block up north mean a lot and aren't likely to be handled great by model guidance. GFS was a garbage solution, but GGEM trended north into an advisory event for pike-south and while Ukie trended south, it is still solidly north of the new GGEM solution. In addition, the 06z EPS trended solidly north, so we will see if the 12z run is any better. If it is, then there's definitely some more hope for this system.

Warm bum-bums in the car seat is Tip's favorite time of the winter.

00z was obscenely north...it was going to sleet well into CT.

Yeah that would work for SNE....prob not a huge event, but at least solid advisory or low end warning. Something to get the ground covered for the cold pattern.

GGEM came quite a bit north with 1/26....we'll see what the other foreigns do before linking our doom and gloom fate to the GFS.

ORH: 2000-2001: 102.1" 2012-2013: 108.9" 1986-1987: 93.6"