ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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It's def a great upslope pattern coming up...you have the obvious signal behind the current storm system, but then the shortwave that passes through early next week is going to set off another round of upslope just as the first round is dying down....sort of reinvigorates it. Then behind that, you have the clipper shortwave for middle of next week....at the very least, if you don't get a few inches of synoptic snow, the upslope machine is going to wring out any of the moister associated with it.
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Heh...that's kind of what happened in the 1/26-27/15 blizzard. Thing was cooked and in Bermuda at 72h lead.
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January 16 2021 - Inland runner Rain/Snow/Wind
ORH_wxman replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Agreed....I'll bet his net gain is 6"+....he will have probably close to a foot or more on the ground afterward. -
Absolutely....we want that thing to throw everything it has at us and dare it to move the block. You'll get a truckload of moisture running into a brick wall.
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Also looks like it didn't want to phase the southwest energy into the system like yesterday's run. Yep....it's not uncommon at all in that type of pattern. You are obsessing over a "larger" threat a week out and then you get ambushed inside of 4 days by a sniper hiding in the flow.
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I wouldn't totally sleep on the 1/20 clipper either...smart bet is that it is no big deal, but some of the runs are pretty close to popping that a bit on the scenarios where vortmax tracks under us. You can get solid advisory type snows on that type of setup.
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Injection lows can cause positive busts. I recall one on 2/18/14 down here. Forecast was advisory 3-5 stuff with maybe marginal warning in S NH. Widespread warning snows happened in N CT through a lot of MA. So for those who are in the cross hairs of where that little firehouse of precip runs into resistance, it can produce.
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The Saturday low is kind of a classic injection low setup. Those can be really nice if you stay snow. Up by Phin could really rake it in for a few hours on that setup.
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NAM def a lot better now for the NNE interior peeps.
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A lot of guidance has the midlevels too warm out in the Berkshires and NW CT. So you have to reconcile that difference before going gung ho. It’s not a situation where one model is like 0C and another is +1C at 925 with 850s of -2C. It’s legit like 850 temps being +2 on some guidance and near 0C on others.
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Not to nitpick, but 2011 would be more like 50-70" in 4 weeks....I ripped off 63 inches between 1/7 and 2/2 in 2011. 30-40 would be more like a Feb '14 or a Jan '94 run. Nothing to sneeze at obviously...I'd take it and run.
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Yeah the anomaly difference is like 3-4C and the stratospheric PV is squashed/elongated more on the recent runs. Yeah gonna be hard to get a KU type system in this pattern I think....if there's a window though, I'd prob pick late January when the trough retrogrades into the GOA and may provide a little bit of temporary ridging into the Rockies while we still have a good Atlantic in place. Maybe something like going on an early 1994 run is definitely viable though.
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Yeah that is much better looking than Monday. NAO exerting more influence. Hopefully the break down of the blocking keeps getting pushed out.....you'd expect that to be a theme as guidance starts to "see" the SSW better as it downwells.
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I was just thinking of that storm when I saw the Euro....reminded me of 2/2/15.
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Yeah it does look pretty damned cold for a while. Hopefully we can lay down some snow. Nothing worse than frigid cold with bare frozen ground.
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Convenient how the hadley cell signature of above average heights in the subtropical latitude band over the southern CONUS was nowhere to be found the first two weeks of the month when we needed it most
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Steady light snow has commenced here.
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Where did you get that idea?
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Yep and it wasn't that far from being snow...when we need a block to hold the line just a little longer, it doesn't on the 1/16-1/17 system. Frustrating. But that's how it goes. This past couple weeks wasn't a textbook snow pattern, but it was serviceable. It was one of those rare "mild but potentially snowy" blocky patterns. Late Dec 2012 was kind of like that but we managed a couple good events (at least away from water).
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This is a microcosm of January so far....long wave setup is decent, but can't buy a scenario where the shortwaves cooperate. You have a robust shortwave (even closed off) in the midwest but it can't do shit for us because it's too close to the 1/17 system.
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Carbon copy of January 2013 and 2015. The bitching is always worse when the pattern isn't garbage but we're still not getting the snowstorms.
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Good candidate for a 5-post
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You don’t enjoy the semantical debate on whether we should call it “unpredictable shortwave chaos” or “luck”?
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Who guaranteed snowstorms? It should be common knowledge for someone like you that has been on the boards for 15+ years that good patterns don’t guarantee snowstorms. But we’re not going to pretend the chances are the same in a good pattern vs a garbage one either. It’s ok to talk about potential.
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You aren’t being a realist. You are doing exactly what you did in 2013. You even kept pretending that the Feb ‘13 blizzard threat was going to miss until it became really obvious like 60-72 hours out. It’s possible we keep whiffing in the upcoming pattern, but it has nothing to do with what happened earlier in the month.
