ORH_wxman

Very likely sleet makes it north of the pike. The question is how much snow happens before that. 18z NAM was actually a furnace...lot of cold rain down there with ZR in interior MA. Tossing it though unless euro agrees.

Selling big ice for that large an area. Prob a narrow band of decent ice and my guess would be closer to the south coast. A bunch of that is sleet in reality.

Agreed. There would def be a thin band of decent ZR, but based on 850 and 700 temps, hard to get that much ZR as far north as it shows. I’d bet on a lot of sleet instead. But we’re probably not at the final solution either.

It also depends on the max warm layer temp. You usually want at least 3-4C for the warm layer for ZR. But even if that happens and the cold layer is more than -6C and like 500m deep, then it will be pellets anyway.

The globals def aren’t feeling this one. The mesos are a little more interested. Guess we’ll just keep an eye on the radar.

Yeah just avoid the ugly cutter and you’ll keep the pristine look to the pack. Even an Ottawa cutter won’t wipe it out at this point, but nobody wants a 20 inch glacier either after 1-2” of rain and a refreeze. That’s some impressive icicle action there. I was up on the roof here yesterday (and likely going back out there today) getting rid of the ice dams. One thing I hate about living where I do...I’m in that climate belt where it’s marginal to have traditional gutters. A little bit colder/snowier and you ditch the traditional gutters...you are well into that territory. Further south and you usually don’t have to worry because stuff melts frequently enough...but here is that annoying zone where every few winters, it turns into this weeks-long battle.

Yeah he’s prob pelting that run...and this may not be done tickling E.

It is definitely a pretty big difference between BOS and ORH for this point in the season. There have been some big differences in the past though. I think 2000-2001 had 102.1” at ORH and 45.9” at BOS. 1986-1987 was a similar spread. 2012-2013 was something like 108.9” and 63.4”. I think 2002-2003 had a very big spread too...about 117” in ORH vs 71” in BOS. ORH has had two big storms this season where BOS was pretty skunked. The 12/5 event gave ORH 9.6” while BOS maybe had an inch or less. Then Of course the 2/1-2/2 firehose out of the east gave ORH 16.5” while BOS had a little over an inch. That makes up most of the difference right there in those two storms.

It actually thumps the pike region now before a flip to sleet.

Euro is going to be SE of 06z by a tick

As long as we avoid true cutters it’s good there. But even up there would kind of suck if we got a cutter or two ripping through Ottawa.

Def toss the clown map. Way too far south with the snow. But definitely a lot colder than the 00z run.

Ukie got way colder. That looks like there could be a decent amount of snow in SNE.

The PV did not end up in Dallas.

06z was even warmer. All these are probably going to cool as we get closer.

I feel like this is coming back SE now at 12z. ICON and RGEM are notable ticks back SE. Still a frozen/freezing mess for much of SNE but the sleet/snow line is a lot closer now. As i said to scott earlier this AM, that is a tight fit to rip that vortmax around the PV lobe. It’s decaying on approach because of that squeeze...Tip actually made a good post about it earlier.

NAM looks pretty good for SE zones. Even up to here is like 2-3”. Scooter might be in a good spot tonight with a little Ocean enhancement.

Yep that looks pretty different from even a few days ago. The PV consolidates very strongly by day 10. NAO has been underestimated all winter but it’s starting to insist that it finally loses its influence. We’ll see. It does look like dateline ridging tries to pop again but without a strong Atlantic block, it will definitely be fighting a SE ridge.

Yeah the classic Waterbury to Hamden corridor might be a spot for ZR.

You’d need to at least double the QPF too for crippling ice.

I’m not sure this looks like a classic big icing event. It moves quite fast and I’m wondering if this ends up more sleet/snow in the end.

Yeah that looked colder than 00z. I’m wondering if this starts getting squeezed east now in the final 72h. When you look at the upper air pattern, it’s kind of a tight fit to slingshot that shortwave around the PV lobe.

2/18-19 is looking a bit more thumpy on a lot of runs...it is one silver lining of the 2/16 system going to crap since it lowers heights behind it and helps out 2/18 a little more. This one still looks messy as the system tries to hug but the antecedent airmass is pretty good.

Euro looked like a furnace aloft. Sleet into NNE. Could be a good amount of icing over interior SNE. Looks like a mostly plain rain event for the coast.

18z Euro looked a little more amped than 12z at 90 hours.