ORH_wxman

I'd prob pick somewhere near Kezar Lake in Maine (between Bridgton and Bethel)...pretty close to skiing (less than 30 min to Sunday River/Shawnee and maybe 45 to wildcat) but also close to civilization and really nice in the summer too. I also love Rangeley area but damn it's far up there and I think you lose a couple weeks of summer compared to further south. Rangeley is more of a place I think I'd have a vacation home vs trying to live there year-round.

12/23 ice event was 2017....2 days before the 12/25 snow. That was a great December back in the interior. We had pack laid down on 12/9 and never lost it until the mid-January 2018 torch.

Hard to imagine we don't get a good system or two out of that in the final 2 weeks of the month. But stranger things have happened.

It’s definitely the lack of huge torch days that is making it seem chillier than it has been. A +6 day isn’t that weird by itself. Most wont notice it. Esp if it is screwed warmer on the low temp. But when you get like 10 days straight of them it sneakily adds up to a pretty damned warm period.

Coastline shape and especially the mountainous terrain. You can get blocked flow like you hear about powderfreak talk about sometimes up in the greens. Only the mountain elevations are higher in japan so the flow becomes blocked easier. When that happens, it creates extra low level convergence to the west of them.

Either that or TB is due for regression (in a positive sense) against them. But the odds are with NO. Since NFL-AFL merger in 1970, it looks like divisional foes where one team swept the other in the regular season met again in the playoffs 21 times. Of those 21 times, the team who swept the regular season went 14-7. Ironically, New Orleans is the last team to do it. They did it to the Panthers in 2017.

Kind of funny that some of the all time great months or periods were preceded by a month-plus of pure dead ratter weather. Jan '69 was absolutely horrific. We already know how the month preceding 1/24/15 went. Jan 1967 was utter dogshit after a good Dec '66. Pre-boxing day was 3-4 weeks worth of melts that we hadn't gotten shit despite a great pattern setting in after T-day. We already know about Jan 2013. Anyways, that doesn't mean this time will follow in those footsteps, but you can't complain about the look. I'll roll the dice any day on it.

Late Dec 2010/early Jan 2011 had the Aleutian/EPO ridging with a big -NAO. Then we trended to more western ridging the 2nd half of Jan 2011.

2017 and 2018....2019 never got that warm.

1/18 and 1/20-21 are the two shortwaves I'd watch at the moment.

Yes, though you tend to get more of them when the NAO is going INTO the negative phase. But 1/12/11 was when the big NAO block early that month was breaking down. Ditto Feb 2006 and Blizzard of '96 off the top of my head.

I have a feeling it's going to get pretty active given the look....good news for NNE (and hopefully here in SNE) as latter January and February are less prone to cutters, so a lot of the precip will probably be snow/frozen. We'll see if we can get back on track. A lot will probably depend on if we can keep a good arctic pattern deeper into February.

Brees looks cooked too...so much dinking and dunking now. But he still has amazing weapons so they can still go places.

Long nights still and really only 6-8 hours of each day is above freezing most days and not by a lot with low dewpoints keeping wetbulb below freezing. West side of BOS there is prob getting 5-7F colder than Logan at night too. Not ideal for building ice, but it will consistently grow/thicken in that type of environment.

Feb 5-6 was a great SWFE that stayed all snow pike northward. Feb 13-14 was a Miller A that was kind of cruddy inside of 128 but west of there it was excellent....had about a foot in that one. Couple other solid events on 2/17 and an advisory scraper on 2/15. ORH actually had 41.5" that month. I wouldn't expect a repeat but there's potential obviously because when you bend back the PJ like that, it tends to be pretty active rather than crushing everything.

Pattern at the end of ensemble runs reminds me of Feb '14 quite a bit...maybe better NAO and SE ridge trying to flex more....opposing forces there.

Reverse psychology.

Couple of potential S/Ws behind that. One for like 1/18 and another for 1/20. Of course, shortwaves can disappear and show up more than 3-4 days out so that caveat applies. People are sick of hearing it, but that’s a great look. We didn’t cash in on the “decent” pattern which stinks (unless we see a miracle inside of 5 days here), but now we reload into a great pattern after 1/16ish.

Reverse psychology.

False.

He’s always yearned for winters of yore....he’s getting a taste of them. It’s like a milder version of the 1980s/early 1990s

We’re also less than 11 months.

Reverse psychology.

I actually don’t even hate that look on the D15 eps...nice cross polar going there and a -NAO. It would be very active. Id still rather have the big ridging out west because our biggest storms happen that way.

WTF how much snow did Madrid get? Is that like a 1 in 200 year storm for them?