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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    GGEM has a nice midlevel sig that actually gets into pets of CT and then E MA later as the big CCB tries to back in. The meat is out of the cap but there is some lift showing up at 500-600mb to the northwest.
  2. ORH_wxman
    V16 came in nicer than 18z. Prob advisory snows for a chunk of the interior.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Ok so the rgem does not agree with the other mesos at 00z. Only ugly black and white maps are out but best i can see is it still has widespread high end advisory snows for most of CT/MA/RI (away from SE coast) I was kind of assuming it would go the direction of the others.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I think the euro will be more correct but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t spooked a bit. I still think the Synoptics favor something closer to the euro. I think Bob is correct noting that the mesos are chasing some lead crap....whether that’s real or not is hard to say but I usually am skeptical of it.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Just as ugly as the NAM. Long range RAP is hideous too. All the mesos so far at 00z are doing the same thing. I’m assuming the RGEM will join the party here in a minute. The more interesting thing is what do the globals do.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah those are some UGLY runs. Really bizarre seeing this so close to the event when you have the euro much better looking. It’s weird that the midlevel stuff is actually pretty potent out to the west in NY state and then just goes poof as it enters SNE.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Looks like 18z EPS held serve. Might have even tickled slightly west.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I’d like to see the h5 look tighten up just a smidge more to get on board with double digits anywhere outside of downeast. Euro is basically nearly there but it’s just leaving enough slack on the east side of the shortwave to make me worried about losing the baroclinic zone east quickly after the initial midlevel thump that gives widespread advisory snows from CT to MA.
  9. ORH_wxman
    1/19-20/78....not even sure I’d qualify it as “widespread” 20 inches but BOS had 21.4 I think. It was their biggest snowfall on record at the time...a record that would last about 2 weeks.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the drought is getting bad there. They could use another 3 or 4 inches of downpours.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I mean, there aren’t many January 20+ widespread events anyway in our region. They seem to be more common in Feb/Mar. Like for SNE, it’s really only 2015, 2011, 2005, 1996, 1978, 1961...maybe one more I’m forgetting? Don’t think ‘87 had a widespread 20 incher though the 1/2/87 storm had some pockets.
  12. ORH_wxman
    I think areas E of 128/95 will really need the rates too. The lower levels there are more marginal than further west.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Honestly, the midlevels look like they hit E MA/RI even harder than qpf distribution would suggest. That’s a good look there. Well see if more guidance comes on board at 00z.
  14. ORH_wxman
    18z euro still looks good for solid advisory. Might have been a tick closer with the good CCB in E MA. That’s almost a huge hit.
  15. ORH_wxman
    It was colder than our airmasses for the next week but i don’t think I’d qualify it as arctic. It was like -5C 850 antecedent. I don’t remember it being in the teens in that one. Maybe like mid 20s on the cold side of the CF.
  16. ORH_wxman
    1/12/11 off the top of my head. Prob not many others.
  17. ORH_wxman
    There were definitely some zonked GFS and GEM runs in there a couple days ago...giving all different parts of SNE 12”+ (in some cases way more) depending on which run it was....but those all had a clear capture and stall down at a further south latitude which was never totally realistic imho. I’m still thinking the precip shield will be further northwest though on the initial burst than modeled for reasons discussed already many times. We’ll see if that improves on tonight’s 00z runs.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I actually thought the EPS was one of the better pieces of guidance all day. That said, I’d be lying if I said some of these paltry outputs like the NAM weren’t concerning.
  19. ORH_wxman
    My gut says it prob tickles down to 29-30 I think at elevation later Sunday/Sunday night. It will prob start near freezing Sunday afternoon though. 925s are like -2 or -3 and we have that weak high to the north so I think it will be hard to stay near 32 in elevated interior when steady snow is falling. Esp after dark.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Looks like there may be a CF pretty close to BOS-PVD line for at least a while. Maybe just NW of that. Should be below freezing on the west side of that overnight Sunday night. SE MA could struggle at 34 unless rates are higher...which they could be.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Tick tick tick...
  22. ORH_wxman
    Seriously...I remember like 5 days saying that anything before the first 8-10 days of January ends is gravy....lol. Now we might have two systems to follow.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I like the upper level track and would be surprised if there isn’t more qpf to the northwest of what is currently shown. Like I said before, maybe I’m wrong this time. It wouldn’t be the first time and certainly not the last, but just based on the core of the vort track and ULL, you’d expect more precip blossoming on that NW side than models are spitting out.
  24. ORH_wxman
    You need it to track south of SNE which it doesn’t on a lot of runs. Almost goes overhead more than anything.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Im not sure how much 6+ this will have in SNE. Might be a lot more 3-5ish if we can’t tuck in the baroclinic zone tighter. We’ll see how the next 12 hours trends though.
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