ORH_wxman

Ukie was pretty juicy. That's a nice event for almost all of SNE and into S NH/S VT.

No, he made one for the Feb 11-12 threat....this is for after that around 2/14. edit: I see he updated the thread to include both....

ORH had 0.47" of QPF which was about double of the 00z Euro run the night before. 12z Euro run was slightly better but still off as it only had 0.30" of QPF. OTOH, the NAM had like 0.7" so it didn't fair any better. I agree with Ryan that the snow growth made the high QPF models look more correct than they were. They were way too juicy in most areas.

I'm thinking 3-5ish right now for most of SNE and into S VT/S NH....a little less near the south coast and taering as you head north. But there is room for a stripe of 6-7" totals if things break right. On some of these runs, there is a banding sig....so that has to be watched. It would prob be pretty high ratios again too. Like someone gets 7" on 0.40" of QPF in a band.

Big coastal snowstorm on GFS today for 2/14. This threat has been there but bouncing around on every run on each model. The way guidance handle the PV will change these solutions and that feature is very difficult on the models.

Yes, how tilted a system is matters, but also how far northwest into that tilt does the big lift penetrate. Those aren't always the easiest to diagnose. The models could be a little off on both aspects and you miss by 25 miles on a big band.

The nickel and dime pattern is a lot more appealing when there is already a good snow pack...lik many in here have right now.

GFS looks about the same as 06z....maybe a smidge south but basically negligible. It's a nice look for a lot of SNE.

ICON ticked south too.

I wouldn't have forecasted the band to be as far NW as it was based on guidance....the max H7 fronto was down near the south coast or even slightly offshore....so I would have had the max band going from like SE CT to maybe TAN or something. Not an easy forecast.

Well Reggie is coming in a good tick south of 06z. So much for consistent cross-guidance trends.

RPM is zonked too

Yeah that is a pretty solid jump north. Ptype issues south of the pike for a time on that.

You prob get a couple inches on that.

06z Euro looks pretty solid too. Not quite as good as the American guidance but still solid advisory look.

Definitely some nice looking overnight runs. Those 06z NAM and GFS runs are developing a cross-hair sig too...I had said previously that the runs I checked didn’t really have it. But these beefed up cycles definitely do so someone could get a nice stripe of low end warning snows if that happens.

LOL. I loved Bode Miller. A New Hampshire native...from right near your new stomping grounds. I think he grew up in Franconia and did a lot of his early skiing on Cannon.

Yeah unfortunately that happens sometimes on flatter solutions. Yeah it gives the southern peeps more snow but it also makes the system more paltry as a whole.

Yeah. I’ll be surprised if he’s useless when he retires though. He’s reached some sort of level where his cognitive game is so high that he’d have to lose it completely from a physical standpoint. Injury is obviously always a possibility. I agree though that you like to see these guys go out on top. Like an Elway, Phelps, or a David Ortiz if we’re being Chowderhead-centric here.

Everyone said that after the Atlanta comeback when he won his 5th. He’s coming back. He is one of these dudes who literally loves playing football including the tedious shit like mini-camps...the type of stuff that guys like Brett Favre skipped at the end of their career because nobody likes them. But Brady actually enjoys it and has this really unique competitive edge that makes him not want to be caught by anyone. As a Cowboys fan, it reminds me of the way Emmitt Smith was from a mental perspective on how they approach the game.

Was checking out some soundings tonight, this doesn’t look overly impressive for cross-hair sigs, but maybe that changes. I’d prob go 1-3/2-4 for most of SNE.

And he’s barely lost anything. Nevermind looking at his pure stats which is enough as it is, but did you see that utter laser he thew to Gronk for the 2nd TD? Dudes like Roethlisberger or Brees couldn’t make that throw these days and they are obviously younger than Brady.

As someone who has lived much of my life in New England but became a Cowboys fan in the late 80s during my brief time living there and don’t particularly like the Patriots but don’t despise them either like local Jets or Giants fans here, I feel like I have a relatively neutral perspective of Brady. The dude is ridiculous. We’re never going to see this again in our lifetimes.

Calling it 7.3 in Holliston. Really nice event. Falling on top of a double digit high-water content pack makes it look like even more.

Just under 7” here now. Won’t make 8 but cannot complain about a warning event. Just barely snuck into the northern edge of that death band earlier which prob got me a couple to 3 extra inches.