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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    This first one you posted did. He’s in Methuen now not Wilmington. It’s not worth parsing over the NAM run anyway but he’d do quite well imho even if he didn’t jackpot that run. He might not get 12”+ but probably at least 8-10.
  2. ORH_wxman
    One of the few storms you would’ve done noticeably better in Methuen than Wilmington.
  3. ORH_wxman
    For Kevin it could easily be an advisory 3-6” event if there’s no earlier capture...he’s interior and elevated enough that it will snow with the residual WAA stuff on the front end. This airmass isn’t as bad as Dec 5th...there’s at least some dry dewpoint drain from that high to the north. If closer to the coast with little elevation then I’d want the rates to pound more.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Not necessarily. There’s plenty of storms I’ll worry more about a scraper or whiff than an amped solution. This is definitely not one of them despite seeing several weak SE solutions on the euro.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Doesn’t have to move NW to get a more tucked track. Just look at 18z NAM. You just need a more defined vortmax...ULL track and vortmax track are already plenty far enough NW for a hugger type solution. It’s just a matter of capturing that sfc baroclinicity early enough.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I think he was asking from our point of view further south.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yes.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Jerry's turn for the jackpot? Just wait one run if you don't like it.
  9. ORH_wxman
    RGEM is actually going to capture it in a good spot for eastern spots...a little different than the NAM.
  10. ORH_wxman
    RGEM not as amped as 12z so far...which isn't terribly surprising since it was one of the most amped models at 12z
  11. ORH_wxman
    Cold layer below the warm tongue is pretty deep for the first several hours, so I wouldn't be surprised at a pretty good sleet-fest for a time. Esp in the zone between the pike and N CT/N RI.
  12. ORH_wxman
    You're in a decent spot.
  13. ORH_wxman
    You'd get like a foot-plus? What's wrong with that
  14. ORH_wxman
    A lot of parallels with the first Feb '83 storm (the one before the HECS)....Feb 6-7, 1983. That was a huge crush job from roughly 495 belt westward and northwest. Though it did bring some decent snows to 128 (albeit some taint)
  15. ORH_wxman
    Actually looks a lot like the Feb 5, 2001 snowfall distribution
  16. ORH_wxman
    You could see it early on that it would likely be good. That shortwave gets squeezed and slows everything down and allows the sfc to feed off the upper air better. It also squashes the vortmax south of SNE which is a more potent look for coastals.
  17. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM is coming in slower through 48....which is probably a good thing for a better system on 1/3-1/4
  18. ORH_wxman
  19. ORH_wxman
    That was the best H5 track we've seen on the Euro....that would prob be better for SNE (esp EASTERN AREAS!!!) than shown. I agree the crazy capture and stall is likely happening to our northeast though. I don't expect 20-30" for anyone until maybe you get up into DE ME.
  20. ORH_wxman
    It was a late phase but the whole thing was much further southeast....and t ended up creating like a 700-800 mile firehose in the mid levels coming out of the east. Had 23 inches in that one in ORH. This one if it does phase and stall would happen much further north...it wouldn’t be an easterly firehose setup. It would be a rotting CCB/deformation.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Eh maybe not. 84h 06z was pretty good. I thought it looked better than 06z leading up to that timeframe though.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Almost captured this run. Better than 06z at least.
  23. ORH_wxman
    This isn’t fast flow anyway.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Could be a nice little sleet bomb for 3 hours here. Hopefully it starts as a couple hours of snow to at least whiten everything up good.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yes. I don’t disagree with that. Even on scenarios where the ULL is redeveloping almost overhead, interior SNE will get accumulating snow. Perhaps even a decent amount. But it won’t be the favored spot for the heaviest and longest duration snows. That would be favored further northeast in that scenario. So I think that’s the difference between and advisory type event or something much bigger.
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