ORH_wxman

I feel like anything we can grab before 1/10 is a bonus. 1/4 can definitely produce (esp interior), but there's not much wiggle room. There may be another shot around 1/7-9 or so.

Want the lobe to redevelop sooner before the WAA taints everything. Ukie barely did this. GGEM was more successful.

Yeah it could definitely come in more favorable....some large scale pieces are there for a good system as Tip already has outlined. But there are some details that can screw it up. Especially since we are dealing with such a marginal airmass. If we had a legit airmass in place...not even arctic...but like an antecedent airmass of, say, -6C 850, then it would be different and more wiggle room. The colder airmass also provides more resistance even aloft, so you promote redevelopment....it's a feedback of sorts.

Btw, this is the same reason I was confident the Dec 16-17 wasn't going to be suppressed. Despite some of the Euro runs struggling to get the goods north of the pike, it had the vortmax tracking through east-central PA and LI/SE MA....that is not a suppressed look at all. So unless that part was wrong (which is less likely since models score higher on upper air features than sfc), it was going to come NW. This is just the same thing but further west than that. You have a potent vortmax/ULL swinging up into W NY and SE Canada. That is not a snowstorm look even into a chunk of CNE/NNE. Now, it could be wrong, or you get enough of a redevelopment lobe to the SE (Ukie tries to do this and GGEM does it even better), but there is reason to be cautious.

Caution flags....upper level track is really far west, even on v16 GFS and Ukie. Now maybe we get a ULL track more like GGEM or regular GFS, but until the other guidance shows that is more likely, I have the alarm antennae up.

Nah, it's lagging too much....baroclinicity already too far north for that 2nd shortwave to help.

There's actually a weird follow-up vort behind the main one....see circled below....I wonder if that can help reorganize it further south.

Euro looks like trash.....vortmax is over in ROC at 108h and H5 center is up near Lake Huron. Bruce Willis caution flags on this setup for sure.

12z Euro tickled colder again.

The midlevels are trending a little colder than I thought they would a few days ago for sure.

Figure I should throw in the hemispheric chart for the same timeframe as my CONUS chart

Yeah the flow is definitely slowing down. But I'm just making a note that the big davis strait block isn't present yet....this one is being slowed by an iceland block further downstream and sometimes there's less "wiggle room" so to speak on those.

How do we know this isn't going to try to run into BUF yet? Right now, it's safe, but it wouldn't take much downstream to let this ride pretty far west. That's a pretty sick shortwave in the midwest already neg tilted

Ukie doesn't look bad at first glance....can't see thermals yet, but prob cold enough for most...at least away from water

Yeah I looked at the H5 and then saw the QPF and was thinking "I highly doubt it...".....lol

GFS has a miller B threat for 1/7-1/8....GGEM had this last night as well although wide right.

No idea, but they update quickly, lol. They literally are the EXACT same graphics as when I started looking at them in 2000 or 2001. They might have been already like that for a few years prior.

v16 is pretty damned cold actually....colder than the RGEM down this way.

SNE crush job on the GGEM.

GFS finally starting to get precip into New England for the 1/4 threat. Light snow event for SNE this run.

Yeah ad the question is how much colder does it trend and if it does, is there enough QPF to make it matter?

Colder than 06z GFS....but yeah, there's no real WAA thump of QPF. It's really weak overrunning crap.

Pictures of advisory snowfall draped on the trees from Holliston to Methuen while 33F and rain in Tolland? Neighbors spot Kevin in his front yard beating the crap out of his computer office-space style with a baseball bat in his raincoat.

It did well in the Dec 16-17 storm.

Cold 12z RGEM run....has advisory snows almost to the pike. Really tight cutoff though...virtually zero snow south of the pike. Still not buying it yet, but may need to watch. That run was pretty much all snow from CON northward.