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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Need to see that from more guidance. A lot of guidance has the ULL trying to go almost overhead which is more of an NNE look.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is a pretty big hit too for SNE and especially Maine. This whole capture and stall scenario is really a theme tonight though I’m not really buying it outside of Maine until we get closer. Those capture/stall for 24 hour scenarios tend to drift more progressive as we get closer historically on model guidance.
  3. ORH_wxman
    And the entire time the ensembles were northwest of those suppressed euro runs...not to mention the Synoptics (vortmax and ULL) argued for a track NW of those OP runs.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Never totally sure in meteorology....especially at this time range...but I haven’t seen a thing so far at 00z to make me think otherwise. I’m not worried about a whiff.
  5. ORH_wxman
    He will probably say lop off the first 20 inches because the ground is warm.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yep, my bigger worry in central MA is ptype versus a SE track until there’s some major evidence for otherwise.
  7. ORH_wxman
    ULL and vortmax track for those worrying about a SE track......
  8. ORH_wxman
    I won’t hate on Forky for the snowblower comment...I used to think the exact same way but then I bought a house that happened to have a wrap around driveway...on a curve in the road (so the snowbanks get obscene)...LOL. Just brutal shoveling that. I did it the first winter in this house including 3 storms of 12”+ (1/4/18, 3/7-8/18, 3/13/18)...after that I said “never again”.
  9. ORH_wxman
    18z EPS
  10. ORH_wxman
    Never knew about the ethanol issues but I did notice my snow blower choking a bit last storm and was wondering if something was up with the motor. Ill have to try it from now on. There’s actually a gas station in town that sells ethanol-free gasoline.
  11. ORH_wxman
    The WCB on this one has looked kind of sickly on most runs. Not seeing that clean thump look. I think 6+ is going to have to be where CCB actions gets involved (not counting the upslope spots).
  12. ORH_wxman
    18z euro is weak sauce way southeast.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Wow what a weenie run of the weeklies. 2nd half of January is all teed up on that look.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Many of the members must be breaking off a piece of the PV like the OP. I noticed the heights down in Ontario and our region look lower than previously. That’s obviously a good thing....even a little bit of fresh airmass enhancement goes a long ways when you have a block like that. A little more antecedent air can give a lot more wiggle room. Hopefully we see that trend stay on future runs.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah plenty of ant-cyclonic curve on that
  16. ORH_wxman
    EPS looks a bit NW of the OP run.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yes. We did have a shorter lived block in Jan 2016 but it never got as intense as current model guidance is suggesting this one could be.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Did you see how this run breaks off a little piece of the PV around D4-5 and that actually then gets trapped in S Canada and keeps some decent cold around? You can see it sitting there just SE of Hudson Bay on the map I posted.
  19. ORH_wxman
    dryslot was hanging out with ice1972 this morning
  20. ORH_wxman
    Davis Strait block....
  21. ORH_wxman
    What in the hell is the Euro doing? It's trying to pull a Feb '69 and retrograde it back. Doesn't succeed, but it makes an attempt.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Vort is pretty weak sauce, but it's still tracking into SE NY....so that is still a caution flag for believing a far SE solution.
  23. ORH_wxman
    12z Euro is going to squeeze the s/w more this run I think. The 1/2 system continues to be slower departing than 06z run.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is mostly a whiff...it gives some snow to CT and MA....it shows rain for SE MA, but I think it would prob be snow as they get into a commahead for a time. But it has sfc temps around 37 so it spits out rain on the clown maps....but 850 temp is like -5 and 925mb is like -1 to -2 so I would say snow there. Doesn't really matter though on a 96h prog.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Why the hell are we posting an 84 hour map in this thread when the event is basically starting in SNE at 78-84 hours?
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